On June 23, 2011, I stated that my crude oil model would likely give a sell signal at the end of the month. Then again, who knew that the stock and crude oil markets would take off for more than a 5% gain last week? Well that mighty burst has West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil (cash data) back above its 10 month simple moving average and that means the bull signalis still on!!! Hold the phone...there is no sell signal.

I first discussed crude oil's potential for a very strong move back on January 19, 2011. I based this analysis on a strategy that I discussed in the article; please review for specifics. That turned out to be a good call although honestly we have ridden this baby like a roller coaster -- up and down with lots of steep drops and strong turning twisting moves! It has been a wild ride.

Figure 1 is a monthly chart of WTI crude oil, and we note that price closed the month above the simple 10 month moving. See the price bar inside the gray oval. In addition, WTI remains in a nice uptrend, albeit at the lower portion of the trend channel. I like to buy low, so this kind of action would appeal to me.

Figure 1. WTI/ monthly