• 529 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 529 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 531 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 931 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 935 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 937 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 940 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 941 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 942 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 943 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 944 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 948 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 948 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 949 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 951 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 951 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 955 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 955 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 955 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 958 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Rip Currents

You may panic.

You could drown.

Or you can ride them out through the breakers.

Appropriate for the season - the rip currents have been everywhere this summer. The only part of the analogy that doesn't fit for me is they typically form after the storm has passed.

Was that it?

If the proxy horseman of Apple is any indication of what's to come in the overall equity markets (i.e what looked like a major distribution was actually just another consolidation) - well then Mr. Soros cash hoard may prove to be a rather atypical contrarian indicator. I suppose if this proves prescient, the recency effect will be seen to not discriminate its prejudice of perspective, even with the macro-guru billionaire crowd - and especially during a precursory round of sovereign debt travails.

Of course as indicated by the ever resourceful hand of sentiment and data mining extraordinaire, Jason Goepfert, the last time in the past 15 years that Apple closed at a 52 week high on earnings was October 23, 2007. Slim pickens with the data set - but that year keeps coming back around in haunting echos...


Larger Image

What has caused great confusion and debate in the macro community is the perception that the US dollar looks to be basing nicely and poised to run higher - perhaps substantially so. How that dynamic and kinetic relationship will fit into the equity and commodity markets will be a key component in getting the second half right.

Looking at a few dollar correlation charts from the data sculptor, David Stendahl, you may just find some clues.

US Dollar vs S&P 500

US Dollar vs Gold

One possible scenario based on these correlation charts is the dollar's inverse relationship to the equity markets will weaken - allowing the dollar to rise in concert with the market. The inverse would likely manifest in the precious metals markets with a strengthening degree of influence by the US currency.

This has long been my standing opinion in my notes - the question was how turbulent the equity markets would be affected by this changing dynamic.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment