• 682 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 682 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 684 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,084 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,088 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,090 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,093 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,094 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,095 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,096 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,097 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,101 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,101 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,102 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,104 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,104 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,108 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,108 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,109 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,111 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Ominous Similarities

Dramatic title I realize but look at the charts below and ask yourself if this is purely coincidence or something more telling. Regulars to this site have read posts comparing the current market to that of late 2007. From equities to credit markets to volatility and more the similarities across asset classes has been rather striking.

The basis for these comparisons was the belief that at major inflection points markets are more about psychology than they are technicals and or macro data. Since human nature never changes patterns will repeatedly play out as discussed by Jesse Livermore (the following is from a book discussing his trading beliefs).

"He observed that human emotions collectively had major impacts on the movement of stock prices and Markets in general, ultimately creating patterns that kept repeating."

Since late June these charts have continued to track very well. Most recently the final move to Point F and subsequent sell off has been eerily similar including the candlestick patterns as highlighted below.

Comparing 2011 to 2007
Larger Image

Next comes the sell signal. Notice the Skew Vix divergence below. The accuracy from a day to day basis is not 100% but the correlations are enough to point towards further selling. In fact I referenced this on Tuesday even while the ES futures were still flat.

Skew VIX Divergence versus SPX

Lastly look at the correlation of the divergence (skew and vix) between the current market and that of late 2007. The basis for this chart was the belief that the divergence captures market psychology by understanding the desire to price in high risk events. Current market psychology in my view is playing out exactly the way it did in late 2007 as the great recession began and markets put in a significant move lower.

Skew VIX Divergence

In essence of full disclosure below is my current trading portfolio. Please note this is not investment advice.

I am currently short SPX via long SPY puts for both August and September and long SPY August debit put spreads. I did sell some SPY August puts today to offset the September puts I bought earlier in the week. The result my position size is the same but I was able to manage risk by shifting to a future expiration for about the same price. In other words I have the same capital at risk but have an additional month of theta.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment