Tony Pallotta

Contributor since: 07 Mar 2011

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• Why The Fed Will Not Launch QE3

  Published 08 September 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Whether the Fed decides to launch QE3 this week is far more a complex decision than they lead us to believe. It is not as…

• The Consumer Has In Fact Changed

  Published 01 September 2012 | viewed 0 times

  The consumer represents 70% of total economic output. So as the bond market is to the capital market, so is the consumer to the economy.…

• Where Do Equity Markets Go From Here

  Published 14 July 2012 | viewed 0 times

  This week's macro view I want to spend focusing on the current market. However you want to describe it, Friday's market was odd. The best…

• GDP, The Hood Looks OK But It's A Mess Underneath

  Published 28 June 2012 | viewed 0 times

  This week the final revision to Q1 2012 GDP was released. The headline is simple, GDP remains unchanged at 1.9%. Not great but not horrible…

• Where Are Treasury Yields Going?

  Published 11 May 2012 | viewed 0 times

  As the US Treasury curve sits near all-time highs the question on every investors mind is what happens next. Can Treasury yields move lower? In…

• Q1 2012 GDP Sends Mixed Message

  Published 27 April 2012 | viewed 0 times

  The US economy expanded 2.2% in Q1 2012 versus 3% in Q4 2011 based on the first of three GDP estimates. Forecasts were for 2.5%…

• March CPI Points Highlights Economic Risks

  Published 15 April 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Friday's release of the March consumer price index (CPI) highlights the risk facing the US economy as we have been discussing over the past few…

• Plunge In Savings Rate Highlights Economic Risk

  Published 01 April 2012 | viewed 0 times

  I can't resist mentioning the irony of talking about personal income "growth" on April Fool's Day. You can't make this stuff up. The headlines read…

• Treasury Market Sell Off

  Published 18 March 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Slightly off topic Macro View this week as I really want to study the movement in treasury. The 10 year treasury yield is currently 2.30%…

• Trouble In Paradise

  Published 12 March 2012 | viewed 0 times

  A chart is considered good when you do not have to add any commentary to make a point. The following is one such candidate. Below…

• Did Q4 GDP Pull In Future Economic Growth

  Published 03 March 2012 | viewed 0 times

  "Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated." - Confucius No economics degree is required nor any complex analysis to understand how…

• To QE or Not to QE That is The Question

  Published 25 February 2012 | viewed 0 times

  The Fed does not like to surprise the markets. They telegraph policy changes well in advance. The coded language of Alan Greenspan has been replaced…

• Inflation Expectations Forecast No More QE

  Published 21 February 2012 | viewed 0 times

  If you study the difference between real or inflation adjusted treasury yields as measured by TIPS and nominal or non inflation adjusted yields you come…

• Tax Receipts And Economic Expansion They Don't Add Up

  Published 18 February 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Taking economic data at face value "trusting" the seasonal adjustment is comparable to looking at an income statement and ignoring cash flow. In other words…

• US Trade Deficit Trouble On The Horizon

  Published 11 February 2012 | viewed 0 times

  I'm intrigued how studying one economic data point can give you valuable insight into others. One such example is that of the recent US trade…

• What Does Deleveraging Look Like

  Published 08 February 2012 | viewed 0 times

  I have made a lot of reference to "deleveraging" within the current market and why it can often send false signals of strength as well…

• How Deleveraging Looks

  Published 08 February 2012 | viewed 0 times

  I found an interesting pattern in studying corporate debt. Specifically yield spreads which is the difference between investment grade and below investment grade yield. As…

• ISM Data Cracks Beneath The Surface

  Published 05 February 2012 | viewed 0 times

  I was going to discuss the payroll report this week but the highly questionable report has been somewhat "discussed to death." What has not been…

• Q4 2011 GDP Trouble Below The Surface

  Published 28 January 2012 | viewed 0 times

  The release of Q4 2011 GDP highlighted just how close the US economy is to actual contraction as well as how vulnerable it is to…

• The Status Of QE3

  Published 18 December 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Aside from countless banks calling for QE3 which one has to wonder if their analysis may be slightly biased for personal gain the question remains…