"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

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Tony Pallotta

Tony Pallotta

Contributor since: 07 Mar 2011

Biography

A Boston native, I now live in Denver, Colorado with my wife and two little girls. I trade for a living and primarily focus on options. I love selling theta and vega and taking the other side of a trade. I have a solid technical analysis background but much prefer the macro trade. Being able to combine both skills and an understanding of my "emotional capital" has helped me in my career.

  • Why The Fed Will Not Launch QE3

    Published 08 September 2012 | viewed 0 times

    Whether the Fed decides to launch QE3 this week is far more a complex decision than they lead us to believe. It is not as…

  • The Consumer Has In Fact Changed

    Published 01 September 2012 | viewed 0 times

    The consumer represents 70% of total economic output. So as the bond market is to the capital market, so is the consumer to the economy.…

  • Where Do Equity Markets Go From Here

    Published 14 July 2012 | viewed 0 times

    This week's macro view I want to spend focusing on the current market. However you want to describe it, Friday's market was odd. The best…

  • GDP, The Hood Looks OK But It's A Mess Underneath

    Published 28 June 2012 | viewed 0 times

    This week the final revision to Q1 2012 GDP was released. The headline is simple, GDP remains unchanged at 1.9%. Not great but not horrible…

  • Where Are Treasury Yields Going?

    Published 11 May 2012 | viewed 0 times

    As the US Treasury curve sits near all-time highs the question on every investors mind is what happens next. Can Treasury yields move lower? In…

  • Q1 2012 GDP Sends Mixed Message

    Published 27 April 2012 | viewed 0 times

    The US economy expanded 2.2% in Q1 2012 versus 3% in Q4 2011 based on the first of three GDP estimates. Forecasts were for 2.5%…

  • March CPI Points Highlights Economic Risks

    Published 15 April 2012 | viewed 0 times

    Friday's release of the March consumer price index (CPI) highlights the risk facing the US economy as we have been discussing over the past few…

  • Plunge In Savings Rate Highlights Economic Risk

    Published 01 April 2012 | viewed 0 times

    I can't resist mentioning the irony of talking about personal income "growth" on April Fool's Day. You can't make this stuff up. The headlines read…

  • Treasury Market Sell Off

    Published 18 March 2012 | viewed 0 times

    Slightly off topic Macro View this week as I really want to study the movement in treasury. The 10 year treasury yield is currently 2.30%…

  • Trouble In Paradise

    Published 12 March 2012 | viewed 0 times

    A chart is considered good when you do not have to add any commentary to make a point. The following is one such candidate. Below…

  • Did Q4 GDP Pull In Future Economic Growth

    Published 03 March 2012 | viewed 0 times

    "Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated." - Confucius No economics degree is required nor any complex analysis to understand how…

  • To QE or Not to QE That is The Question

    Published 25 February 2012 | viewed 0 times

    The Fed does not like to surprise the markets. They telegraph policy changes well in advance. The coded language of Alan Greenspan has been replaced…

  • Inflation Expectations Forecast No More QE

    Published 21 February 2012 | viewed 0 times

    If you study the difference between real or inflation adjusted treasury yields as measured by TIPS and nominal or non inflation adjusted yields you come…

  • Tax Receipts And Economic Expansion They Don't Add Up

    Published 18 February 2012 | viewed 0 times

    Taking economic data at face value "trusting" the seasonal adjustment is comparable to looking at an income statement and ignoring cash flow. In other words…

  • US Trade Deficit Trouble On The Horizon

    Published 11 February 2012 | viewed 0 times

    I'm intrigued how studying one economic data point can give you valuable insight into others. One such example is that of the recent US trade…

  • What Does Deleveraging Look Like

    Published 08 February 2012 | viewed 0 times

    I have made a lot of reference to "deleveraging" within the current market and why it can often send false signals of strength as well…

  • How Deleveraging Looks

    Published 08 February 2012 | viewed 0 times

    I found an interesting pattern in studying corporate debt. Specifically yield spreads which is the difference between investment grade and below investment grade yield. As…

  • ISM Data Cracks Beneath The Surface

    Published 05 February 2012 | viewed 0 times

    I was going to discuss the payroll report this week but the highly questionable report has been somewhat "discussed to death." What has not been…

  • Q4 2011 GDP Trouble Below The Surface

    Published 28 January 2012 | viewed 0 times

    The release of Q4 2011 GDP highlighted just how close the US economy is to actual contraction as well as how vulnerable it is to…

  • The Status Of QE3

    Published 18 December 2011 | viewed 0 times

    Aside from countless banks calling for QE3 which one has to wonder if their analysis may be slightly biased for personal gain the question remains…