• 519 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 519 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 521 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 921 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 925 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 927 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 930 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 931 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 932 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 933 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 934 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 937 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 938 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 939 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 941 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 941 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 944 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 945 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 945 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 947 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Gold Thoughts

This week markets have taken two prices to new highs: donuts and Gold. One is eaten. Other is now worshiped. Which should be our choice for today? At today's prices, donuts may be better choice.

For those wondering why donuts came to mind, Dunkin' Brands stock(US: DNKN) came to the market this week. First day pop was almost 50%. At the same time, $Gold was pushed to a record high. At that same time as anticipating the U.S. government defaulting, investors are buying donuts?

On this topic we note that the world champion donut eater is Canada. No nation consumes more donuts per capita, or has more donut shops per person. With Summer only a three-day weekend, donut shops are certainly more practical than swimming pools. They also own a lot of Gold.

Question that investor must address today is whether or not to convert $Gold, at more than $1.600, to donuts, or to continue worshiping the grand metal. Note what is excluded from this set of choices. Buying Gold at this price is a bet that the U.S. government will default on its debt, and the U.S. dollar will plunge in value. Both of those expectations may simply be another example of the madness of crowds.

In the panic induced discussion of the U.S. debt situation what is being ignored is the very positive development that it represents. The Obama regime, and its minions in Congress, lost the last election, big time. When one loses an election, one does not dictate policy. Rather, one accepts the terms offered. U.S. House of Representatives is in the process of changing policy, altering the trajectory of U.S. government spending. This development is an incredibly positive event. One that should be applauded, unless one is eating at the public trough or receiving money in exchange for votes.

Pundits, many of whom previously recommended investing in internet stocks and mortgages, are telling us with near certainty that the U.S. government will default on its debt and the dollar will collapse. Suspect that a week from now those ideas will be gathering dust. Alternative scenarios do exist. As a consequence of this madness of crowds, those that ignored Gold a thousand dollars lower are scrambling to buy Gold, without regard for the price. Buying hurricane insurance when the flag is flying means dramatically over paying for that insurance.

This week $Gold touched about 6.4 times the last major low. That level of valuation is equivalent of a yellow card in each of the referee's hands. Any price action above that level should give investors reason to know where the exit doors might be. The time to use those doors has probably not arrived, given the dysfunctional government still in power in the U.S. But, every investor should know the location of their personal door.

We bring no charts to you this week. At current price levels, and with a near mob mentality on the U.S. debt situation, no charts are needed. No technical analysis, good, bad, or mythical, is likely necessary. After twenty years of success for Gold and failure for Keynesianism, t he verdict has been delivered: Gold 1 Keynesianism 0

Investors should be considering several possible actions. $Silver is over priced, and has experienced a bear market rally of ~20%. It is clearly demonstrating that it is not a store of value in times of uncertainty. At today's price, Silver is again a strong sale. Alternatives for those proceeds to consider are Rhodium and Chinese Renminbi deposit accounts.

Be careful next week, running with the mob puts one at risk of being gored!

 

US$GOLD & US$SILVER VALUATION
Source: www.valueviewgoldreport.com
  US$
GOLD
US$
GOLD %
US$ / CHINESE YUAN CHINESE
YUAN
%
US$
SILVER
US$
SILVER %
CURRENT $1,628   $0.1554   $40.25  
SELL TARGET $1,970 21% $0.5000 222% $35.50 -12%
LONG-TERM
TARGET
$1,831 12% $0.3330 114% $33.00 -18%
FAIR VALUE $862 -47%     $15.60 -61%
ACTION Gold preferred
to Silver.
  Buy Chinese Yuan   Sell Silver  

 


GOLD THOUGHTS come from Ned W. Schmidt,CFA,CEBS as part of a joyous mission to save investors from the financial abyss of paper assets, and the great Silver fiction. He is publisher of The Value View Gold Report, monthly, and Trading Thoughts. To receive these reports, go to: www.valueviewgoldreport.com

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment