• 525 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 526 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 527 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 927 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 932 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 934 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 937 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 937 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 938 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 940 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 940 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 944 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 944 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 945 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 947 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 948 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 951 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 952 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 952 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 954 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Saved By the Bell - Maybe - For a While

SUMMARY

The debt fight in Congress may be resolved tonight or tomorrow or before the August 2 deadline. A relief rally in the stock markets is probable, although disappointment with the long-term implications could also cause a sell-off. Nobody really knows for sure.

Greece, Ireland and Portugal, and now Spain, are not actually resolved. Greece is already in effective default (they call it voluntary private participation), and will need EU and IMF bailout and more voluntary participation as time passes.

China instituted more bank controls late last week to limit insolvency issues there, but forbidding further off balance sheet funding vehicles for municipal projects.

Not being at all sure on Friday of the weekend's events, we did lighten up a bit more on equities that day as a precaution. If there is a rally, we will have lost some relative return in exchange for added downside protection should the weekend or the Monday reaction not be adverse.

The fundamentals for the US stock market are good. Governments are in bad fiscal and solvency shape, but major corporations are generally in good condition. Nearly 80% of public companies beat expectations for Q2 earnings. Sales are rising. Earnings are rising. Dividends are rising, yet payout ratios are still moderate. Valuation multiples are not excessive.

The US stock market is doing better than foreign markets.

US bonds are doing well, in spite of recurring expectations of rising interest rates. Treasuries, which are reference rates, keep going down as general fears keep money flowing into Treasuries. When that flow reverses, rates will rise and bonds will decline.

This report presents key data about the positive fundamentals for US stocks, data and arguments for dividend income, chart evidence that a long-term up trend is still in place, and comparisons of the S&P 500 to its sectors and other countries, types of sovereign bonds, and commodities.

We prefer the bird in hand of cash dividends to two birds in the bush of capital gains-only in treacherous times such as these, particularly for portfolios in the withdrawals stage of life.

We don't know what will happen tomorrow, but we do have our fingers crossed.

Saved By the Bell - Maybe - For a While

 

Read the Report

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment