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1998 Redux - Update

Monday evenings note (see Here) concerning the similarities in market conditions with 1998 is replicating along very similar lines - both in seasonality, price and volatility. After yesterdays extreme move lower - the downside target is coming into equal proportions to 1998. Following this analog - risk appears tilted towards further weakness in the equity markets in the near term. With that said, another leg down will likely be contingent on further exogenous propellant from Europe.

Here is an updated chart after yesterday's close.

VIX SPX 1998

VIX SPX 2011


Positions in UUP & GLL

I just joined Twitter. All my trades and occasional market musings are disclosed in real-time here.


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