• 407 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 408 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 409 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 809 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 814 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 816 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 819 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 819 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 820 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 822 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 822 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 826 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 826 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 827 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 829 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 830 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 833 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 834 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 834 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 836 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Daniel Aaronson

Daniel Aaronson

Continental Capital Advisors

Continental Capital Advisors, LLC was formed to offset the destruction of wealth caused by the global devaluation of currencies by central banks. The name Continental…

Contact Author

Lee Markowitz

Lee Markowitz

Continental Capital Advisors

 

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Pushing On A String

From the onset of QE2 in 2010, stocks rose despite a weak economy. Investors believed that stocks would rise either because the economy would improve or because the Federal Reserve would print enough money to ensure that stocks would rise - a classic "Don't Fight The Fed" situation. In fact, Ben Bernanke opined in a Wall Street Journal editorial that a positive feedback loop would occur from a rising stock market. The positive feedback loop has not occurred, and the incoming economic data is so weak that recent communications from the Fed have even acknowledged that it has been "Pushing On A String." For example:

August 9, 2011 Federal Reserve Board Meeting Minutes Excerpts¹

...In contrast, some participants judged that none of the tools available to the Committee would likely do much to promote a faster economic recovery, either because the headwinds that the economy faced would unwind only gradually and that process could not be accelerated with monetary policy or because recent events had significantly lowered the path of potential output. Consequently, these participants thought that providing additional stimulus at this time would risk boosting inflation without providing a significant gain in output or employment.

August 26, 2011 Ben Bernanke Jackson Hole Speech²

...Notwithstanding these more positive developments, however, it is clear that the recovery from the crisis has been much less robust than we had hoped. From the latest comprehensive revisions to the national accounts as well as the most recent estimates of growth in the first half of this year, we have learned that the recession was even deeper and the recovery even weaker than we had thought; indeed, aggregate output in the United States still has not returned to the level that it attained before the crisis.

Though the Federal Reserve has already printed $600 billion, the economy has gained no traction. Economic and financial headwinds facing the economy are so strong that they have rendered monetary policy ineffective. Therefore, the global debt problem, weak economic backdrop and corporate earnings will be the primary drivers of the stock market going forward. These drivers pose tremendous risk to investors because the stock market is still nearly 100% higher than it was in March 2009. The Fed is out of bullets and the consensus view will soon be that the Fed is "Pushing On A String" should they pursue further intervention.

 


¹ http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20110809.htm
² http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20110826a.htm

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment