Daniel Aaronson

Continental Capital Advisors

Contributor since: 26 Feb 2010

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• The US Economy Will Not Decouple

  Published 03 May 2012 | viewed 0 times

  During the past couple of years, we have written about the debt situation facing both Europe and the United States. The economic data coming out…

• Stocks Are On The Cusp Of A Major Decline

  Published 03 February 2012 | viewed 0 times

  Equities have continued to rise even though the financial problems of the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) remain unresolved. Bullish sentiment readings have…

• The Financial Crisis Ahead

  Published 11 November 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The financial crisis that began in 2007 has moved from the private sector to the public sector. In 2007, investors ignored the warnings from the…

• Pushing On A String

  Published 09 September 2011 | viewed 0 times

  From the onset of QE2 in 2010, stocks rose despite a weak economy. Investors believed that stocks would rise either because the economy would improve…

• Rising Awareness Of The Global Debt Problem

  Published 05 August 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The sovereign debt crisis gained significant attention in July, yet while the equity market is overdue for a bounce, it remains significantly overvalued. The chart…

• By Ben Bernanke's Definition, QE2 Has Failed

  Published 21 June 2011 | viewed 0 times

  On November 4, 2010, shortly after the Federal Reserve began its $600 billion of asset purchases known as QE2, Ben Bernanke wrote an editorial in…

• A Problem That The Federal Reserve Cannot Solve

  Published 06 May 2011 | viewed 0 times

  The financial condition of the United States is irreversible. The liabilities of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid (See Figure 1), along with an annual budget…

• A European Interest Rate Hike Is Likely Priced In

  Published 11 March 2011 | viewed 0 times

  In early 2008, Lehman Brothers management increased the company's dividend even as its underlying credit quality was rapidly deteriorating. In a potential repeat of history,…

• Investor Perception Changes Quickly

  Published 28 February 2011 | viewed 0 times

  Last year, we highlighted a historic surge in municipal bond fund inflows that we speculated would end badly (see: http://www.continentalca.com/home/March-12-2010). The charts below show that…

• Ignoring European Sovereign Debt Problems Is Risky

  Published 14 January 2011 | viewed 0 times

  European government debt problems surfaced over a year ago. Initially, Greece was the only country struggling to access the capital markets, yet the problems have…

• The US Faces The Same Problems As Europe, But Has A Different Solution

  Published 10 December 2010 | viewed 0 times

  The United States' financial situation is as dire as that of many European countries, yet the US Government's actions contrast sharply with the austerity measures…

• Parabolic Asset Prices Are A Precursor For Deflation, Not Inflation

  Published 12 November 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Recently, many commodity prices have undergone parabolic increases leading market participants to conclude that high inflation is on the horizon. However, history suggests otherwise as…

• The German Mark Had Significant Rallies On Its Way To Zero

  Published 29 October 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Following World War I the German Mark lost all of its purchasing power. However, before its ultimate demise, the Mark experienced several meaningful rallies despite…

• Do Investors Really Believe They Cannot Lose?

  Published 01 October 2010 | viewed 0 times

  September's stock market rally, the best September since 1939, was impressive not only because of its magnitude, but also because of its influence on investor…

• A Long-Term Look At Stock Market Investor Sentiment

  Published 17 September 2010 | viewed 0 times

  As equity mutual fund outflows mount (Figure 1), stock market bulls argue that such outflows indicate that investor pessimism is high enough to serve as…

• Cracks In Central Banking Credibility

  Published 10 September 2010 | viewed 0 times

  The credibility of central banks is being questioned. In the United States, media reports point to growing dissension within the Federal Reserve about future policy…

• Self-Reinforcing Deflationary Forces

  Published 20 August 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Deflation is largely a psychological phenomenon and it is gaining momentum as consumers and corporations delever. The Federal Reserve is trying to overcome deflation by…

• Similarities to 2008

  Published 06 August 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Investors and market strategists are excited about the rallies in equities and economically sensitive commodities, but the declines in gold and Treasury yields are likely…

• Worrying Signs From The Federal Reserve Minutes

  Published 23 July 2010 | viewed 0 times

  Last week, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its Open Market Committee meeting that concluded on June 23.¹ Meeting participants were hopeful that the…

• The Wrong Debate

  Published 16 July 2010 | viewed 0 times

  There is an ongoing debate among investors and economists about whether the US economy is in the midst of an economic recovery or at the…