• 658 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 659 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 661 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,060 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,065 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,067 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,070 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,070 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,071 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,073 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,073 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,077 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,077 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,078 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,080 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,081 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,084 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,085 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,085 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,087 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

Zombie Foreclosures On The Rise In The U.S.

During the quarter there were…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

GLD: Buy That Dip

The fundamental outlook for gold remains strong despite the recent pullback. Treasury yields continue to fall suggesting weakness in the economy, and short term T-bills remain well below the inflation rate (i.e., year over year change in CPI). These are gold positive. Despite the positive back drop, pull backs within the major trend do happen and it is not unusual for gold to undergo a correction. The question is always how much.

As I correctly (I think) identified on August 24, 2011, the persistent up thrust in gold was ending. Whether it meant the start of a more significant pullback or the start of something more serious was not clear. It just looked like the SPDR Gold Trust (symbol: GLD) needed a "breather". I had identified 173.49 as support, and except for 1 day that saw prices open well below this level only to trade back to this level the very same day, this support level has remained true. See figure 1 a daily chart of GLD. The day in question, which was meant to separate you from your money and the bullish trend in GLD, is noted with a blue up arrow.

Figure 1. GLD/ daily
GLD Daily Chart

Proprietary research, where I look at the draw downs from individual trades from the gold timing model, suggest that the average (max) drawdown is around 10% for each trade. The range is 2.69% to 29%. Currently, GLD is about 7% from its highs.

Returning to figure 1, we note that the GLD has found support at the key pivot level (pink dots) at 173.49. If this level fails to hold, prices on GLD could trade to 165 or possibly 156. Resistance is at 183.58.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment