"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

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Steve Bauer

Steve Bauer

Steve owned a privately held asset management firm and managed individual investor and corporate accounts as a Registered Investment Advisor - for over 40 years.

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Investing Wisely -- Something to Ponder and Personalized Support / Direction

Something to Ponder:

Historical Review of: 2007 - 2009 - Bear Market

There were two distinct major pull backs in this Primary Bear Market of 2007 through 2009. I have broken down both pull backs by using my (primary) five proprietary Technical Indicators. As usual, both these Pull Backs were rather briefly interrupted by what is called a Bear Market Rally.

The 2007 - 2009 Bear market was a bit unique. Its devastation to you portfolios, and that there were just two pull backs instead of the usual three. Often in the more distant Bear Markets there were three or more distinct major pull backs before a bottom was reached.

We will now have to wait and see what will come in the ensuing months and quarters ahead for this current Bear Market? I hope you are in Cash or seeking experienced guidance for prudently taking some Bear Market positions.

At this writing, I cannot see any positive long-term changes from the Bearish Position I took, in this blog, way back in October of 2010.

Not one of these specific five Technical Indicators were available in any Chart Service prior to 2007 and at the time that I -- came out of retirement and published a single mini blog saying that: "A 2007 Bear Market is upon us, and you had better move your investment positions to Cash." This was in October 2007. I only had only a few Clients to advise and more important to you - (Inverse) ETFs were not prudent and mature investment choices as yet - today ETFs is a flourishing part of the U. S. and foreign Stock Market activity.

My (primary) five Indicators are all "Leading Indicators" - that means they are anticipatory and lead me to my procedures for "fine tuning" and the eventual Taking Selective Investment Positions as appropriate in either Bull or Bear Market environments. Obviously, in this case (October 2007), it was taking selective Bearish (Short) Positions.

I would like to be very clear that Technical Analysis is by far the most dynamic of the three forms of Securities Analysis (Analytics) that I use. It can be graphically presented for all of the world to study in just a few picture charts. It is very important for me to note that as a financial analyst / asset manager for over 50 years I view both Fundamental Analysis and Consensus Analysis as having as much, or more, to do with the identification of Primary Inflections Points as does Technical Analysis. Unfortunately, to present an adequate picture of the current or past Fundamental and Consensus Analysis would take volumes of pages and therefore, is not practical in such a short missive. I believe you should also know that Inflection Points present themselves rather frequently each year, that is over the on-going Cycles of the General Stock Market.

For graphic support of this missive, please have a look at the charts that I have presented in StockCharts - PubicList. The URL is: http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID4715917

I sincerely hope that you will take the time to study the flow of my narrative and come to realize that there is no longer any other way to grow your retirement and general assets. Mutual Funds and the old "Buy and Hold" is no longer a prudent way to invest your money.

Please note both here and on the Historic Chart for the 2007 - 2009 in StockCharts - PublicList, there are specific 2007 - 2009 Bear Market statistics that should seriously get your attention. If they do not get your attention, you are hopelessly lost forever enjoying the possibility of being a profitable and successful investor!

The Stats: (see the above referenced charts)

First Leg Down: Loss of about 11%.

Second Leg Down: Loss of about 45%.

Combined, First and Second Legs Down or a Total Loss of approximately: 56%

Just for the record, it was much worse than the above with many, many mutual funds!

Note to you fine folks at SafeHaven.com:

I have omitted the BODY of this text because I am protecting Clients and Prospective Clients by no longer giving away the entire farm in the form of free investment advice.

The BODY of this missive is quite detailed and I believe I have rather thoroughly shared the essence of Investing Wisely. I hope you will note below how to become a Client or a Prospective Client.

The 'Body' and much, much more will be made available to you if you wish to open an Email dialog with me.

Within the above 'Body' of this missive, I have tried to walk you through my Analytics of the 2007 - 2009 Bear Market in a way that you can relate to. Yes, it is complex and required many hours of work / analysis, but it is by far the most logical procedure I have ever encountered. Furthermore - Yes, I have encountered many, many more (supposedly 'logical procedures') than you can imagine. In grad school we reviewed every theory and procedure since the earliest dates of the Stock Market.

Perhaps more important to me, is that you can both see and understand that "History Repeats Itself." Over and Over and Over Again and Again - It has been the same -- in the Bear Market of 1999 - 2002 and all previous Bear Markets since this all began well over 100 years ago.

You have likely been hurt badly by Bear Markets only to recover some of you lost assets (money) in the ensuing and following Bull Markets. In the last decade or so, this approach to investing has not produced growth like it did in post-World War II through the 1990s. I believe that you must 'seriously' try to grasp the fact that the Stock Market has changed and so must you.

Thank you for taking the time to review my "stuff."

Just something to ponder . . . From an old fox!

Three articles supporting my "Three Pillars" of my Investment Methodology that you may want to read: (the title for each is at the end of the below URLs)
# 1. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/119898-my-rotation-model-a-short-explanation
# 2. http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/121308-steven-bauer/120955-my-shb-cycle-a-short-explanation
# 3. http://www.safehaven.com/article/22158/inflection-points-a-short-explanation

I would appreciate you also reading my more complete Bio. - I offer very strong / accurate opinions to be sure we are at least a little compatible in our investment philosophy. Please use this URL for my Bio:http://seekingalpha.com/author/steven-bauer

How to become a Client or Prospective Client:
If you would like to have further information on my work / analytics or perhaps my professional asset management, mentoring or consulting - services . . . I would appreciate your sharing just a bit about yourself and your investment objectives.
I will need you to provide information regarding your investment needs, goals and objectives as well as - how you think my work / analytics might be of help in your quest to enjoy being consistently profitable on an annual basis.
Please understand that I am seeking "serious investors" to become Clients. I am willing to work with you as a Prospective Client providing on going forecasts, warrnings, alerts, advice / direction on your existing portfolio and limited new recommendations. I wish I could do more!
Just send me an Email, and I will respond promptly.

Thank you so very much for your time in reading my "stuff." It is conservative, low risk exposure to the marketplace and very profitable.

Smile, have Fun - "Investing Wisely",


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