• 1,009 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 1,009 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 1,011 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,411 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,415 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,417 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,420 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,421 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,422 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,423 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,424 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,427 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,428 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,429 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,431 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,431 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,434 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,435 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,435 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,437 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

The State of the Trend

When both the bullish and bearish scenario as outlined in last week's article point to higher prices ahead, it should come as no surprise that the SP500 advanced almost 6% in one week.

In the process, the SPX almost reached the target area where the index should stall according to the bearish outlook:

There are increasing signs that a change in the market's character is taking place, although market internals have not registered oversold levels yet. If anything, the negative divergence of market internals with price is indicative of an approaching swing top:

At this point, it may be useful to introduce another bullish/bearish chart set which may shed additional light on where the market is headed for the rest of the year.

The Bear Forecast, first published in December last year, shows a .75 correlation with price action in 2011. If the forecast remains accurate for the last quarter, then we should expect range-bound market action:

From a dominant cycle point of view, however, 2011 shows highest correlation with 1998. And if that continues for the months ahead, the current rally may have some legs:

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment