The world awash in debt reached its debt ceiling after western governments became the backstop to financial markets, to homeowners as well as to Wall Street. The numbers boggle the mind. The size or totality of this debt is now too big to be supported by the new economic reality of austerity. As the supply of debt increased, investors sought protection in the traditional havens like gold and US Treasuries. To no surprise, the legacy of the globalization of banking, cheap interest rates, and bailouts have unfortunately stuck taxpayers with the losses providing the breeding ground for the "Occupy Wall Street" (OWS) movement and the Tea Party. Once again we are wrestling with the problems of moral hazard. America's debasement of its currency and the absence of fiscal policy has created a debt-induced recovery with major currency imbalances directed to once favoured havens such as Switzerland and Brazil causing, a currency war. Now the world is running out of havens. Everywhere large capital inflows have hurt exports as exchange rates are forced up. Brazil was forced to lower interest rates and another haven, the Swiss tied the Swissie to the sinking euro.

The Financialization of America

The financialization of America's economy began when Wall Street and a host of hedge funds found new ways to make money - the shadow banking system with its toxic derivatives that clog our financial system. The shadow banking system enabled the financing of a lot of homes, cars and record pay

packets on Wall Street, transferring wealth from one class to another via credit manipulation. Soon others like General Electric joined the party. The financial industry represented 16.3 percent of total corporate economic output and almost a third of total corporate profits. The much talked about credit default swaps (CDS) for example were so inadequately funded that the margin requirements were insufficient to make them economic. The bailouts made the shadow banking system even bigger. And of course, today the shadow banking system is among the largest lenders to many of the problem sovereign borrowers.

There are some $600 trillion of derivative transactions or 10 times the global GDP traded through the shadow banking system estimated at $16 trillion, dwarfing the $13 trillion traditional banking system. And despite regulatory attempts, the shadow banking system continues to thrive in part due to the implicit support of the central banks' handmaidens, the too-big-to-fail investment banks and their hedge fund customers. This group are the chief architects of the current problem. Leverage is their lifeblood. At the epicentre is the US Federal Reserve which expanded its balance sheet to a staggering $2.8 trillion by purchasing the toxic structured products of Wall Street and lately its own Treasuries to finance QE I and QE II.

The Fed's "pledge" to keep interest rates low has created the last bubble and another haven poised to burst, the bond market. US Treasury bonds have headed ever higher as the Fed drove interest rates considerably lower than the rate of inflation, wiping out savers like pensioners and their insurance companies. Despite near zero rates though, the big sovereign funds and money market refugees flooded into Treasuries, financing of course the Fed's obligations giving Wall Street yet another opportunity to earn big fees from numerous structured products. However, the Fed's policy is vulnerable to a combination of a pickup in inflation, higher interest rates, a hedge fund collapse or even a sovereign default which would send rates higher, not lower. The rush out of bonds would be catastrophic. And yet another haven would bite the dust.

US Poised For Another Downgrade

For now, Mr. Obama's most successful tactic has been blaming scapegoats for his problems successfully diverting attention from his ineptness and policy mismanagement. First President Bush, then Wall Street, bashing the Tea Party and now the rich. And today, faced with buckets of red ink, Mr. Obama has embraced Warren Buffett and the Occupying Wall Street (OWS) demonstrators by introducing a contentious tax bill, (aka jobs bill) designed to soak the rich calling the move, not class warfare but simple math. Already, the top 10 percent in America pays nearly 70 percent of all income tax. And, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the so-called one percent, pay about 31 percent of their income in contrast to the average worker who pays less than 14 percent. Herman Cains' 9-9-9 tax plan is not so outlandish after all. Actually it's not even math, since the tax on the wealthy will not come close to closing the wide chasm between revenues and expenditures. Needed of course is the cutting of expenditures or even the acceptance some of his own Debt Commission's proposals. Mr Obama's newfound populism simply made good politics.

Under Obama, America has become the world's largest debtor. Since 2007, gross national debt has climbed almost 90 percent to $15 trillion, as large as their entire economy. US household debt makes up 120 percent of disposable income. Indeed total debt to GDP is a whopping 350 percent, worse than during the Great Depression. And this country continues to pile on more debt. Debt on debt is not good. History shows that countries run into trouble when the comparable debt to GDP ratio exceeds 100 percent. With most of the developed world choking on comparable debt to GDP levels, printing more money to buy more time (or kicking the can down the road) seems to be the favoured policy option. It gets worse if you include America's entitlement debt, or the hapless debt of Freddie and Fannie.

Worst still, tinkering with the capital tax or even dividends does not solve America's problems. If higher taxes makes sense why not a consumption tax which would tax the spending mentality or even get rid of mortgage deductibility? Or how about fixing their litigation laws? In others words there are simpler, bolder and better ways to fix America's problems. Getting rid of the host of deductions and a consumption tax would simplify the tax code and raise more dollars than soaking the rich. It would also go a long way to solve the bipartisan Congressional Super Committee dilemma to reduce the deficit by at least $1.2 trillion by the November 23rd deadline, before cuts are imposed on everyone- or will that deadline be missed too?

Taking From The Rich

The bigger worry is that America's spending has increased over a third in four years to a post-war high 24 percent of their GDP which exceeds their US domestic savings rate at a time when they face massive debts and huge deficits. Federal spending in fiscal 2011 reached a high of $3.6 trillion up from last year's $ 3.5 trillion which included the so called temporary stimulus spending. Washington has racked up annual deficits in excess of a trillion dollars for three years in a row and must borrow 40 cents of every dollar they spend. The problem for America is that federal tax revenues as a share of GDP is only 15.3% and both the Congress and the President are at an impasse whether to boost more revenues. This money must come from somewhere which means that it must be borrowed or taxed. Or they could stop spending.

Until recently, foreign central banks accounted for over half of the government's debt but their purchases have recently declined, forcing the Fed to fill the financing gap. The cash rish Chinese are sitting with $1.1 trillion of US Treasuries, but how long will they fund the US need for debt? Rates must eventually head higher, if only to fund the gaping twin deficits in a capital-short world. Artificially low rates and the bond bubble is a one way bet. Although, the United States' reliance on foreign lending is for more than half of their deficit, they appear to be shooting themselves in the foot by threatening to impose tariffs on imports from China, their largest creditor. If the world led by China balks at purchasing more US debt, Greece`s problems would pale by comparison. What's more a buyer's strike would cause a crippling US bond market crisis, market contagion and a spiking in yields. Of course, Mr. Bernanke could step in to monetize this debt, by printing yet more dollars but this would also trigger another currency market crisis and a Zimbabwe-like hyperinflation. While the printing of money is something the Obama administration is quite good at, it is just easier for them to take from the rich and give to the poor.

Is Europe Another Lehman Brothers?

The debt contagion has now infected Europe. After decades of policy mismanagement brought about by financial excesses and political cynicism, the European Union, despite the last minute Grand Plan, faces collapse as policymakers are a long way from a coherent solution. Europe is riddled with debt-ridden sovereign states and undercapitalized banks. Responses have been too little and often too late. Moody's has warned that France, one of Europe's key member could lose their AAA rating as a result of the growing sovereign debt problem. Italy's near $3 trillion of debt is 120 percent of GDP. Optimists are hoping for yet another bailout and policymakers are looking to the Chinese for assistance since they have the world's largest foreign exchange reserves. Despite receiving €340 billion, Greece faced default once again with losses of 50 percent for banks and pension funds. Renewed concerns about a credit event sparked investor panic over the fragile banking system who must make good on the billions of credit default swaps. Yet still, another Greek deadline is missed and details of the 14th EU summit in 20 months are to follow. Déjà vu.

Leveraging for Catastrophe

Another idea is the creation of eurobonds out of thin air, backed by all 17 eurozone countries. But the European Union is a political union not a fiscal union and the eurozone countries individually do not want to assume those obligations. Some of Europe's individual members have been down this road before. Germany's national psyche once went through currency instability and the consequences of the Weimar Republic hyperinflation. Déjà vu.

The eurozone members face two other alternatives, an exit of its weaker members (default) or permanent financing of weaker members via a fiscal union. Canada today has equalization payments, transferring funds to "have not" province from the richer "have" provinces, but the central government controls taxation. Somehow Europe must reassure the world and itself that it is moving towards such a fiscal union, without giving carte balance to its chronic weaker members. Europe has even turned to financial alchemy creating the newly minted European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) as a special purpose entity (SPE) to bailout troubled countries which is just a glorified Collateralised Debt Obligation (CDO) facility designed to insure investors against losses on government bonds not dissimilar to the structure that sank Lehman Brothers. Because the fund is not big enough to handle the problems, the EFSF is to be more leveraged to be able to buy additional government bonds and recapitalize the banks. Debt on debt will not work.

History shows, the bigger the bailouts, the bigger the losses and the more certain that the collective debt burden becomes unserviceable. Consequently, in an effort to raise needed revenues, European governments have also proposed to introduce a tax on financial transactions on the very financial institutions that are being asked to take a hit. And it is precisely the refusal to pay up that has eroded market confidence. A default itself would send the shadow banking's derivative market into turmoil. A silver lining may well be the end of high frequency trading aka front running, which is dependent on fractions and the blind acquiescence of regulators. No golden goose would be untouched. The Basel Committee is also pushing for a capital surcharge penalizing the stronger banks exacerbating the problems of the weaker banks. Europeans seem to be giving with one hand and taking with the other.

Another Haven Bites The Dust Gold was supposed to be a store of value when everything else seemed risky, but it too succumbed to the massive sell-off last month in the "dash for cash". Some took profits since gold was one of the few profit areas. After all the metal rose from $300 an ounce in 2000 to a record high of $1,950 an ounce in late summer before plunging by more than $300 an ounce in less than a month. Yet the bears failed to mention that Comex, the futures exchange raised the margin requirements to 21 percent making bullion more expensive for holders.

Another haven was the vast pool of foreign exchange which is open 24 hours a day and much more liquid. The bedrock for the foreign exchange markets is the US dollar and it too provided a haven in a time of volatility. But several factors have increased the risk of investing in Treasuries, potentially threatening the dollar's reserve status itself. Since World War II, America has been the issuer of the world's currency accounting for over 60 percent of the world's $10 trillion of currency reserves. Under the Bretton Wood's system of fixed exchange rates, the US pledged that it would maintain the greenback at fixed exchange rates. The dollar was tied to gold at a fixed price of $32 an ounce. As the world prospered, America produced more and more dollars, but the more dollars created, the greater the drop in value, Eventually the linkage to gold was tested by the French, who laden with dollars sought to exchange their dollars for gold. In August 1971, President Nixon refused, ending the gold linkage instead moving to a world of floating exchange rates, resulting in another flood of dollars. The dollar's devaluation was complete.

The US no longer appears to take its responsibility as the sole reserve currency in the world seriously as reflected by the most recent budgetary impasse, Standard and Poor's downgrade and the Feds monetization of their huge debt load. To be sure the financialization of the US economy and politicization of their finances makes earlier investments questionable. Like the Thirties, it seems that every country must fend for itself with the current crisis born from the preceding boom's excesses. And, with volatility reaching new highs, the aversion to risk will show that all safehavens are not alike. US Treasuries, were once a risk free asset but we expect a replay of the debt ceiling debacle when the government's Super Committee revisits tax cuts or increases in November.

We believe the key driver for gold reaching $3000 plus next year is the lack of faith in the US economy and the collapsing US dollar. Gold is the ultimate haven and default currency. Despite the debt ceiling debacle which left no one happy, Mr. Obama has emerged as a lame duck president. Unemployment is almost at double digit levels and there are already 15 million Americans looking for work. And while Obama pledged a growth strategy that would include a fiscal plan to address America's ballooning debt in the wake of another House defeat, Mr. Obama would rather blame Congress, a rating agency, Wall Street and the rich. To be sure, the buck did not stop with him.

Gold Is The Antidote To Our Problems

Today, fear has certainly taken over from greed, particularly the fear of losing money. Gold's scarcity has been used as a reason for the gold bubble to burst, however it is that very scarcity value that makes gold so valuable. Gold has a four thousand year-old history as a safehaven. The SPDR ETF (aka the people's central bank) recently became the largest ETF by value in the world and the sixth largest holder of bullion in the world. Gold's intrinsic storehouse of value has stood it in good stead when gold moved fifteen-fold following Nixon severing the dollar from gold. While gold has risen every year for the past eleven years, the metal has only risen five times.

We expect the world's second largest country, and largest lender, China to also have a say. The yuan is slowly being institutionalized. But demand for yuan reserves would push up the Chinese exchange rate and that is something that China will have to balance. An obvious solution is to add gold to back currencies. Most likely in the near term, is the creation of a currency basket based on the yuan and gold, petro-dollars and gold in the Middle East, euro and gold in Europe. In the West, we expect a return to a defacto gold based currency. Gold will be a good thing to have.

Despite the most recent battering and bruising, we believe it is only part of the normal correction. After all, we are taught to buy low and sell high. Since 2001, there has been a correction in gold every year, averaging about 15 percent without breaking down. Each time gold recovered and made new highs. Today's correction of almost 15 percent is in line with the ten year history and we continue to believe that gold will hit $2011 in 2011 and $3,000 an ounce in 2012.

Inflation Is Baack

Yet, like all politicians it appears that Mr. Obama has opted for inflation as a means to pay for his debt. On his watch, persistent growth in money and credit continues at double digit levels, keeping rates below the inflation rate. In the seventies, such groundwork was deemed inflationary when, the prices of goods and services went up. This time, we are told there is no inflation but, the prices of commodities, financial assets like bonds and currencies are up and instead this is called a bull market. The financialization of commodity markets reflects investor desire for a hedge against inflation. Commodities are by and large priced in dollars and the falling value of that currency has propelled commodity prices higher. The creation of numerous hedge funds specializing in commodities is a by-product of the casino-like atmosphere created by easy money.

America's trading partners have been sucked into the vortex, because the US dollar remains the world's currency. America defaulted in 1933 and 1971 when it abrogated a promise to repay debts in gold. It will again. In the forty years since Nixon abandon the gold standard, America has consumed much more than it produced and owed much more than it owns. Today the world is awash in fiat dollars causing a series of debt fuelled asset bubbles. Once before, the world saw similar money inflation that at the time was unprecedented in history - Germany, the Weimar Republic. Inflation is a silent killer of savings and wealth. America's creditors can only stand by and watch, which is why they are looking for alternatives. Gold is simply the default currency and protection against the likely outcome of an inflationary resolution of debt.

Recommendations

We continue to expect shortages in gold output, with mine production peaking last year. Costs have also increased and the big producers are stuck on a treadmill. Meanwhile the demand for gold remains strong fuelled by Asian purchases, Indian demand, ETF buying and ongoing central bank purchases. We also believe investors will rank more highly safer geo-political jurisdictions as governments seek to increase their take from mining's golden geese. Sovereign risk has become a bigger factor. Peru has imposed higher taxes, Argentina ordered companies to repatriate export revenues, Australia has slapped on taxes and so on. Yet the modern day gold rush continues as mining companies benefit from record prices for gold and buy each other such as the latest, Agnico-Eagle purchasing Grayd Resources. The dealmaking is due to near record profit margins, quest for growth and the fact that gold has an eleven year winning streak. And as new discoveries dwindle, mergers become attractive. As outlined in our last report, "Gold: The Audacity of Hope", it is cheaper to buy ounces on Bay Street than with the drill bit.

We continue to believe that the environment is excellent to make acquisitions and we outline a number of potential takeover targets who are producers with excellent exploration potential. Among the majors, we continue to like Barrick who will likely be an acquisitor and among the midcaps we continue to recommend Eldorado, Centerra and knocked down Agnico-Eagle. Among the third tier, we like Aurizon, Detour Gold, and US Gold with a particular emphasis on silver players, MAG Silver and Excellon. Excellon has bulked up with a second leg in Timmins and recently announced a "rare earth" discovery. Among the exploration plays with "ten bag" potential we like Continental Gold, Newstrike and Ryan Gold.

Aurizon had a change in management and the company is on track to produce 165,000 ounces this year from its flagship Casa Berardi in northwestern Quebec. Aurizon has a solid track record in bringing Casa Berardi on stream and the increase in gold production is geared to an improvement in average ore grade. Aurizon's portfolio however includes Marban in Malartic and the excellent Joanna gold property near Rouyn, Quebec. Hosco is likely to be Aurizon's next mine. The prefeasibility of the Hosco deposit has outlined a resource of 4.1 million tonnes at an average grade of 1.2 grams/tonne or 2.2 million ounces of gold. Aurizon has consistently improved its resource base and has an excellent portfolio of properties plus a growing balance sheet. We continue to recommend the shares here for Casa Berardi, a geographic base in Canada and rising production profile.

Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd.

Agnico took a whopping $260 million write-off at its Goldex Mine in Val D'Or which knocked $1.9 billion off Agnico's market cap. Agnico experienced structural problems with the hanging wall which caused a flood posing a risk to its underground workers. Agnico's shares fell more than 20 percent on the news since it removed about 1.6 million ounces of reserves and 184,000 ounces of low cost production. While the Company plans to continue drilling, we believe it has taken the most conservative treatment, despite the possibility that the mine could be up and running again. No doubt there is a need for more experts and a review of the mine plan, but this will take time. The news offset the big improvement at Meadowbank and at Kittila in Finland but will not affect Agnico's other plans for Meliadine in Nunavut or takeover of Grayd Resources near Pino Altos mine. We suggest that this weakness affords an attractive purchase opportunity and like the stock below $50 a share.

Barrick Gold Corp.

The world's largest miner, Barrick recorded a record quarter of $1.37 per share. With reserves of 140 million ounces and 1.1 billion ounces of silver, Barrick is well positioned with a growing pipeline of mines. Near term, Barrick is need of growth and thus the $7 billion acquisition of copper player Equinox brings a billion dollars of near term cash flow helping finance its multi-billion dollar projects. For example, Barrick is spending almost $4 billion at Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic and Pascua Lama's price tag is over $5 billion. To be sure longer term projects like Donlin Creek and Cerro Casales' price tags are in the billions. Meanwhile Barrick's exposure in Tanzania, Zambia and Porgera is bringing grief as their mines have been targeted by either locals or governments. Barrick is even experiencing difficulty in Pakistan. Barrick is under pressure to show investors that there is not only a next generation of gold projects but near term, the company can also show growth. Some shareholders have suggested that Barrick buy back its shares which we do not think likely but instead Barrick has increased their dividend by 25 percent. Linking the dividend would be timely and in line with other producers like Newmont and now Eldorado who are sharing the largesse of higher gold prices.

Centamin Egypt Ltd.

Centamin had a mine tour at its open pit and underground mine in the eastern desert of Egypt. Centamin remains on track to produce 200,000 ounces at a cash cost of $550 an ounce this year. Production for the first nine months totalled 143,500 ounces, but the company is on track and expects a record quarterly output through the Sukari process plant. Centamin is undervalued with a resource base in excess of 14 million ounces. We believe the Egyptian upheaval put pressure on the shares providing an ideal purchase opportunity. Centamin is a solid producer with a 160 kilometre exploration lease and thus is an ideal takeover target given its plan to expand production to 500,000 ounces by 2013.

Centerra Gold Inc.

Centerra Gold is a Canadian-based gold company operating in the Kyrgyz Republic and Mongolia, producing about 625,000 ounces this year at a cash cost of $475 per ounce. Centerra has a strong balance sheet with $465 million in cash, strong operations management and a strategy of building up resources through acquisition or development. Centerra has more than 10.1 million ounces of resources with a majority around the Kumtor open pit. Centerra enjoys a mining concession that expires in 2042 and has a tenement of 26,300 hectares. Centerra has begun underground operations which will further boost output. Centerra plans to spend to $18 million in exploration this year and we believe that the Company is well positioned to grow its reserves. We like the shares here and believe that the shares are undervalued.

Detour Gold Corp.

Detour continues to advance its flagship Detour Lake project in northeastern Ontario. At the same time Detour has successfully raised funding to finance the Detour Lake gold project with almost 15 million ounces. With a mine life in excess of 20 years and potential production of 650,000 ounces annually, Detour is a classic takeover candidate, particularly since a large part of the $1 billion capital expenditure has been funded by Detour's own balance sheet. Gold production is expected to commence in 2013. We continue to recommend the shares here for near term production but also all important tax pools and the likelihood of a takeout by one of the majors.

Eldorado Gold Corp.

Eldorado has expanded its Kisladag mine which will boost production and mine life. Eldorado is a Canadian based producer with six operating mines in Turkey, China, Brazil and an advanced stage project in Greece. Kisladag's expansion study reviewed the viability of expanding the mine and Eldorado will file a supplementary environmental impact assessment (EIA) report in the first part of next year which could see Kisladag increasing output to 575,000 ounces of gold per year. Eldorado has produced a record 180,000 ounces of gold at an average cash cost of almost $400 an ounce due in part to record production from Kisladag. The results are in line with Eldorado's guidance but noteworthy was that the Eastern Dragon mine in China is likely to be delayed due to permitting and construction issues. Of interest, Eldorado produced 128,000 tonnes of iron ore at its Brazilian Vila Nova iron ore mine at a cash cost of $63 per tonne but netted over double that. Eldorado has strong upside potential here based upon rising production, resources and excellent management. The company wisely adopted a gold-linked dividend policy which we endorse.

IAM Gold Corp.

IAMGold produced 231,000 ounces in the quarter, due largely to its 90 percent owned Essakane in Burkino Faso which produced 86,000 ounces in the quarter. IAMGold is maintaining its guidance for the year of one million ounces from five gold mines and of interest it has retained investment bankers to advise on its stake in the Niobec mine which produced 4.5 million kilograms of niobium. Nonetheless IAMGold has a flat production profile. However, with a cash-rich balance sheet, IAMGold has said that they are on the acquisition front but we prefer to wait to see what they acquire. Nowadays it is easier to buy than to run a mine. We prefer Eldorado here.

Goldcorp Ltd.

Goldcorp's flagship Penasquito silver/gold/lead/zinc mine in Zacatecas Mexico is still having problems. Penasquito is a large open pit mine which was supposed to produce 500,000 ounces of gold and 28 million of silver at full capacity. However the project's price tag has skyrocketed as delays in construction and inflation pushed prices higher. In addition start-up problems have resulted in the mine underperforming. We have always believed that this megaproject would be difficult partly due to continuity problems. The deposit is largely sulphide and milling problems in the second quarter plagued the project. A high pressure grinding circuit was to blame. Penasquito was expected to be up and running next year with full ramp-up capacity at 130,000 tonnes per day producing 350,000 ounces of gold and 24 million ounces of silver, but this year's problems led to an increase in Goldcorp's cash costs, offsetting low cost Red Lake. We continue to be cautious on Goldcorp's pronouncements on Penasquito and prefer Barrick at this time.

US Gold Corp.

Rob McEwen's US Gold continues to advance its El Gallo project in the foothills of the Sierra Madres in Sinaloa State, Mexico. The El Gallo discovery is a huge complex with a total resource in excess of 40 million ounces and still growing. US Gold has fifteen drills turning developing five new veins, as part of its $30 million budget. The Company plans a large open pit and could be in production sometime next year. Shortening the lead time is the nearby 100 percent owned mill at Majistral. Meanwhile, US Gold and Minera Andes entered into merger agreement that will see the two companies combine to form McEwen Mining giving an interest in Minera's Santa Cruz, owner of the San Jose mine, 100 percent ownership of the Los Azules copper deposit and a large portfolio of properties in Argentina, which borders Goldcorp's Cerro Negro project in Santa Cruz province. With a strong treasury, young management and a focused leader, we believe the newly minted McEwen Mining has terrific upside.

Larger Image