Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the i-Shares Lehman 20 plus Year Treasury Bond Fund (symbol: TLT).
Figure 1. TLT/ weekly
Last week, in the article on "Bond Technicals", I provided some signposts to help guide us with the price action. As far as TLT was concerned, I stated: "It seems likely that TLT will end the week above the most immediate pivot at 120.76. If TLT can stay above this level, it should surpass the 2008 highs." TLT did end the week at 120.80, which was above the key pivot, but with this week's risk on bonanza, it seems very likely that TLT will close the week back below this key level. By my definition, this would be the dreaded double top.
Of course, last week when I wrote the article "Bond Technicals", it did appear that TLT would easily close above the key pivot by week's end; it ended the week only 4 cents above that level. Currently, we are 2.5 points below the key pivot. My point is that anything can happen, and as I operate on weekly data, I will need to wait until Friday's close to get confirmation.
As far as the fundamental model, it still remains positive, but I will need to wait until the end of the week to make that call. As always, I will keep you posted.