Silver's weak recovery from oversold conditions remains capped beneath key support at $30.0000. Only a sustained close below here would trigger a test of the previous swing low at $26.0700.
Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.
Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silver's longterm uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual resumption higher.
Continue to watch the gold-silver "mint" ratio (see top chart insert) which has now accelerated higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks. This also helps explain recent divergences between gold and silver.
