"No warning can save people determined to grow suddently rich" - Lord Overstone

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The State of the Trend

The SP500 managed to finish the year barely positive but with a big question mark regarding its future direction. Fortunately, we won't have to wait very long to see whether the market will continue on a bullish or bearish path. This can clearly be followed on a monthly chart, where the SP500 is bumping against channel resistance:

The Q's are in a similar position, bumping against triangle resistance, within the uptrending channel:

The accumulation/distribution indicator, which was warning mid-December that a rally is imminent, has retreated from overbought levels and hovers about mid-range. And the weekly SP500 finds itself in the middle of its Hurst channel band:

Incidentally, both my bullish and bearish seasonal forecasts for the SP500 in January, point to a decline of a varying degree. It will be interesting to see how they fare in the face of coordinated monetary easing by central banks worldwide:

Happy New Year!


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