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The State of the Trend

In this week's analysis, I'll look at the SP 500 trend within three different timeframes (daily, weekly and monthly), and in the process will focus on the dominant mean reversion cycle. The charts are pretty much self-explanatory, and I won't go into unnecessary detail.

The daily trend is up, but the mean reversion cycle has turned down:

The weekly trend and cycle are both pointing upwards:

While the monthly trend is up, the monthly mean reverting cycle is nearing its peak:

In summary, the trend in all three timeframes is pointing up. The monthly mean reversion cycle is supporting the upward trend in prices, and is so far dampening the short-term negative daily cycle effect. With the monthly cycle nearing its peak, however, this support may soon begin to wane.

 

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