EUR/USD is holding steady around 1.3000, after the recent shortcovering rally from extreme momentum and liquidity conditions (with net short positions over 2 standard deviations from the yearly average).

Another "doji" pattern has appeared, exhibiting signs of exhaustion which may pressure the rate back into its declining channel near 1.2850.

Immediate resistance remains overhead at 1.3000/77 (psychological/04th Jan high). Only a sustained break above here will offer a stronger recovery into 1.3197 (21st Dec high).

Meanwhile, the bears need to push back beneath this year’s new low at 1.2625 to resume the major downtrend into 1.2600-1.2530 (target zone), toward lower support at 1.2240 and 1.2010.

Inversely, the USD Index is holding steady under its 12-month highs, still pressured by old resistance at 81.31/44 (Nov 2010/Jan 2011 peaks).

Key support at 79.75 (pivot level) is likely to hold and help re-launch the greenback’s recovery (already up 10%), which is part of our bullish cycle strategy for a further 20% gain over the multi-month period.

Daily Technical Report