Today I don't have many "fancy" ideas to share, hence I will keep it brief.
I am following the plan from the potential EW pattern that in my opinion has a large probability of being the correct one, accordingly, as long as price does not deny it, I will stick to it.
The scenario implies that price is tracing a Zig Zag off the October 4 low; hence price is now tracing the wave (C).
The projected target for the wave (C) is at 1376
The assumed wave (C) has to unfold an impulsive 5-wave up leg, therefore price is now in the third wave.
Within the wave (3), since the internal structure is not clear, it is tough to have a confident s/t count. But as mentioned this Sunday, the Mc Clellan Oscillator and the 10 dsma of NYSE adv-dec volume are warning that upside momentum is waning, therefore price should be involved in last stages, but as long as price does not show weakness, despite being overbought the s/t trend remains up.
Yesterday's Spinning Top is another warning.
If still higher, price should stall at the resistance trend line off the 2007 top at 1328.
2 events may be the cause of a temporary delay:
- Tonight we have the State of the Union Address.
- Tomorrow we have the FED day.
Once a top is in place the following pullback, should last + - 1 week while price should not overlap below the assumed wave (1) at 1267.06 (SPX).
The DOW is unfolding the same EW pattern but here price has not reached yet the equality target for the wave (3), which stands at 12761
One of the major "leitmotifs" of the "plan" lays in a counter trend rebound of the EUR. Which atm moment is looking ok.
Here price is approaching horizontal resistance at 1.3077 and the 50 dsma=1.3077
If the next pullback is corrective and does not breach the 10 dsma = 1.2837 then price could be shaping the right shoulder of a bullish IH&S pattern. This bullish pattern would have a target at 1.3536, which would allow price to almost reach the origin of the Ending Diagonal that established a bottom o January 16.
Anyway the area between the 0.382 - 0.5 retracement should be achieved by the assumed wave (B) up.
