Graceland Updates 4am-7am
Feb 7, 2012
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While I may have a few minor concerns about the current emotional state of some gold market investors, I have absolutely no concerns about what I see on the gold chart. It's a bullish work of art.
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Still, if you want to drive from Los Angeles to New York, I think we can all agree that you should consider stopping for gas, correct?
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Well, the gold price needs to stop for financial gas on its trip across "dollar country", particularly when it has "driven" $240 uphill on the dollar price grid, and is preparing to blast above significant technical resistance.
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Click here now to view the key daily gold chart. It's a picture of bullish beauty, and I have highlighted the enormous wedge formation with two black trend lines.
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It is normal, healthy, and desirable for price to pull back to the supply line of a wedge formation after the initial breakout to the upside, and that is happening now.
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After rising about $240 an ounce without a fuel stop, your gold automobile has simply pulled into the financial gas station. The attendant is filling your car with gas, checking the oil, and even cleaning your golden windshield.
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Sadly, many of you may be cursing the attendant this week, as he does his job. In the gold world, there are great gas stations. The service is impeccable, as shown by the gold chart.
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Screaming at the attendant that you don't need any gas to drive all the way across the country is perhaps not the smartest move, but it's your call.
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You don't need to panic here at the gas station. Soon your gold car will be happily on its way across dollar country once again.
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Liquidating juniors stocks at huge losses into $1525 and then rebuying them as gold soars into $1700-$1750 is the best way to get a lifetime membership card in the price chasing country club. It's also an action that could impoverish you.
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If the gold market is manipulated then it is all the more important not to engage in the action of chasing price. The banks likely are manipulating gold, and manipulating it higher, with central bank buy programs.
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The question of why some gold investors have felt significant discomfort over the past few days is perhaps one that is better answered in front of the mirror than by trying to see who can reach the loudest decibel level while screaming that Friday's jobs report is a fake one.
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Silver fans should click here now. You can see that price has charged from about $26 to $34, and has now pulled into the financial gas station for a rest and a fill-up, alongside the lead gold car.
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I'd like to make a tiny suggestion at this point in time and price. Try stretching your legs and grabbing a snack here at the gas station, rather than screaming that you're being manipulated to death.
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For silver, HSR (horizontal support and resistance) sits on the buy side at about $30, and it would be very healthy for silver to "fuel up" at $30 or lower, before launching a run at the downtrend line in the $36-$37 price area.
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I would caution those who take chart patterns too literally that this March silver contract has what could be technically construed as a descending triangle formation, with an ultimate and horrifying target of 3 dollars an ounce.
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While a fall from $26 to $3 seems totally impossible, you need to be mentally and emotionally prepared to endure all price points on the grid, if rather than a silver bug, you want to be known as Prince Silver.
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This is an epic crisis, and neither asset deflation nor asset inflation is the theme. The theme of this crisis is surprise, and therefore mental and emotional strength are your main tools for survival and prosperity. The good ship "prediction" is a sinking one, and the only question is, are you still on it?
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The descending triangle pattern on silver does not suggest that silver might fall down. It suggests that silver might go on sale. I don't think you will get the serious price sale suggested by the triangle formation, even though gold and silver are now entering what is seasonally the weakest time of the year.
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Click here now to view the scenario I think is more likely. The weekly chart for silver doesn't exhibit any kind of descending triangle action, but instead shows a large drifting rectangle, with a breakout to the upside as the likely outcome of the current $26-$50 range trade.
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Click here now for a shorter term view of the silver market, covering about a month of trading. There have been four touchings of the $33 HSR support on this chart, and a breach of that price point could see silver go on sale at a price of about $30-31.
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The bottom line is that you need silver to move lower after an $8 move to the upside, so that it can launch a serious assault on much higher prices.
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Running your silver car with limited fuel and maintenance is not going to see you arrive at your targeted dollar destination. Hang out with your gold buddies at the fuel station, but let the attendant do his job, or he might just call the men in the white suits for you.
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What is the scenario for gold stocks? Click here now to let the GDX fuel attendant do his job. There's a number of wedge formations apparent in the metals markets, including this one for GDX. To blast over the downtrend line, price needs to "fuel up" after the recent rally, and then rip upwards through the supply line. All is fine. Grab a snack, then come back with your seat belt fastened!
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Cheers
St