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USD/CAD: Upside Failure

By - Feb 17, 2012, 5:56 AM CST

USD/CAD has reversed sharply from 1.0052 after bulls failed to sustain the upside break of resistance at 1.0039, completing a bull trap.

Immediate risk switches to the downside as the rebound from the 0.9928 is looking decidedly corrective, and while 1.0052 caps the risk is seen for a crack at 0.9928, loss of which could then see an extension of the recent downtrend towards reaction lows at 0.9892 then 0.9766.

We would need to see re-capture of 1.0052 from here to suggest basing potential, with scope then for a push towards minor resistance at 1.0163 then 1.0250 in a more bullish multi-week scenario

EUR/CAD, which tends to share a positive correlation with EUR/USD, is still holding steady after the recent setback. The rate remains within a neutral trading range while beneath 1.3252. A downside resolution would target support at 1.2999 and 1.2760 (10th Jan 2010).

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