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Dow 13000, You Shall Not Pass

Dow 13000, You Shall Not Pass

The Bull's attack on Dow 13000 has failed again and again, and again. What does this mean? UPDATED1

Simple, SELLING.

Some large accounts are taking every chance they get after the Dow runs over 13000 to unload stock float at great prices. This is a battle between the bulls and bears. If the bulls realize they have lost then they will join the bears and a correction will start. If the bears lose, the bulls will have soaked up all the selling and a very strong rally will follow. Plus, watch out for a bear trap, a short 2% correction with a strong bullish comeback (a classic shakeout).

Or just maybe the expected bearish news out of Europe (ak Greek 20th Bond payment deadline) through March is causing a run of profit taking that will likely see a 5% to 10% correction in the Dow (INDU). The answer is only days away.

Previous Post: Reasons to be bearish into the Ides of March

UPDATE1: Thanks to Mark J Grant for a very good summary of the status quo.

Source: The Lull (a must read)

Extract..."We are in "The Lull" which has been caused by the injection of capital by the Fed and by the ECB. This is exactly, exactly, what took place I remind you during the weeks after the subprime mess exploded. Massive injections of capital, run-ups in equities, compression in bonds, higher prices for commodities and then the reversal of course took place. When easing ends then the course back tracks and I predict a re-do of this in the coming months. It will not take some trigger event, though there may well be one, to cause this; just the easy money being placed and no more manufactured money to follow. "...

COMMENTS: The easy money has been used to pump up prices. Since the LTRO1 started in December SP500 has jumped 15% on low volume. The low volume means the very large accounts are NOT interested in the rally has they see it does not have legs. Large accounts can take days to months to make a position, and a violent sell off does not give them time to get out (i.e. Flash crash). So the large accounts buy when the market is falling, and they are expecting a sell off, they are the lion waiting for the herd to fall into their trap. They are the true market predator. The market rally since (and it may not be over) is showing all the characteristic's of a Wyckoff UTAD (Up thrust after distribution) which is in short a suckers rally.

Here is the more polite description of a UTAD

.."This is shown as an upthrust after distribution (UTAD). Like the terminal shakeout in the accumulation schematic, this gives a false impression of the direction of the market and allows further distribution at high prices to new buyers. It also results in weak holders of short positions surrendering their positions to stronger players just before the down-move begins. Should the move to new high ground be on increasing volume and relative narrowing spread, and price returns to the average level of closes of the TR, this would indicate lack of solid demand and confirm that the breakout to the upside did not indicate a TR of accumulation, but rather a formation of distribution."..

Yip, you are at the table of a giant poker game! Learn the game grass hopper!


Lord of the Rings: Tho shall not pass 13000 you big nasty bullish dragon!


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