• 518 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 519 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 520 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 920 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 925 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 927 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 930 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 930 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 931 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 933 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 933 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 937 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 937 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 938 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 940 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 941 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 944 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 945 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 945 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 947 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

EUR/USD Could Target 1.26 Again

The U.S. is mildly recovering, while Europe is in recession. Eur/usd could again decline to 1.26.


U.S.: Private debt is still high.

In the U.S., the combination of job and G.D.P. growth should continue for some more time. Nonetheless, the recovery remains fragile and household debt is still high. Real spending rose in the first months of this year (0.2% in January and 0.5% in February), but real disposable income declined. As a result, household saving rate fell to 4.6% to 3.7%. Why?

Income growth is non-existent, wages remain low. Stocks increased, but private investor participation is limited. Finally, housing starts have climbed since last summer. However, most multi-units are not sold. They are instead rented, as households are probably still lacking the confidence to invest in the sector. Since 2009, new highs were reached only 3/5 years after prices hit the bottom (2010).

Mr. Bernanke stated nobody can be sure current improvement in the job market will last. Past history (1952/61, 1969/1982) confirms that the unemployment rate might decline short-term, but could rise again over the longer-run. Rates should stay low, until the public debt of $15 trillion will improve. In fact, every rate hike of 0.65% increases the debt's cost by $100 billion. A new stimulus package is possible, if growth starts to fade. The timing of the operation is not clear yet, since it could be seen as a direct support to Mr. Obama re-election.


Emerging markets bottoming?

cted, the E.C.B. left rates unchanged last week. The central bank wants to size the effects of the various measures before acting again. Inflation is under the lens. In effect, while the northern states are trending, southern countries are in recession. Youth unemployment is a big issue that could jeopardize the future of Europe. Attention is now focused on the elections in France and Greece. According to recent pools, Mr. Sarkozy and Mr. Holland are sharing equal popularity. Apparently, both candidates support Europe and a close alliance with Germany. Eur/usd could decline to 1.26 again, supported by seasonal and technical conditions.

As developed economies are limited by sub-trend growth, emerging markets could lead the recovery, despite a poor 2011. In the past, they have shown a great independence, a better business cycle and a more stable fiscal policy. Last year, rates were increased to calm inflation. Restrictive policies should contract growth this year as well. However, the Chinese government has already begun easing its monetary policy and bank lending rose in December. Risk stays high. Nevertheless, a turnaround of the emerging markets could increase the demand for raw materials, eventually in the last part of this year.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment