AUD/USD’s recent bearish trend-line breakout remains active and is now pushing once again beneath its 200-day average, within a multi-day breakout pattern (see hourly chart).

Our cycle analysis and recent model portfolio short position continues to favour further mean reversion under 1.0230 and 1.0146 (09th Jan low), thereafter targeting the parity level.

Keep in mind that such a move would signal a break from the multi-month distribution pattern and its 3-year uptrend (see weekly chart).

Meanwhile, only a sustained close above 1.0470 and 1.0670 would put this scenario on hold and target resistance at 1.0857 (29th Feb high).

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar continues to be in weak downtrend against neighbouring New Zealand dollar, which is holding beneath the 200-day average. Key support can be found at 1.2465 and 1.2360.

The Aussie dollar remains weak against Japanese yen, weighed down by a multi-week double top pattern. Any further mean reversion targets the 200-day average (at 81.22) and would signal more unwinding of global risk appetite capital flows.

Daily Technical Report