Spain is a wreck. Let's start with that as a framework, but are there any dividend growth companies there that seem to be weathering the problems?
We examined the 5 and 10 year dividend history of all stocks in the MSCI Spain country index (same stock as in the iShares Spain fund, EWP) to see if any displayed a pattern of continuous and rising dividend payments, with a high current yield, a reasonable payout ratio for their industry, good long-term growth prospects, and evidence of reasonable price multiples. We found two prospects.
This article reviews the top ten stocks in the index, and the two quality high yield prospects, which happen not to be in the top 10.
The two companies are:
- Red Electrica (a power grid management company) -- local symbol REE
- Enagas (a natural gas pipeline) -- local symbol ENG
Each stock yields over 7% with a 10-year history of dividend payments and increases.
First A Quick Look at Some of the Problems in Spain:
Unemployment is highest in developed Europe at 23%. Austerity programs to be implemented will increase unemployment further. The GDP is falling. Bond yields are at about 6%, a level that stimulated ECB intervention in the recent past. The CDS yield spread to Germany is about 510 basis points, which Bloomberg reports implies a 37% chance of default.
This histogram from Markit places Spain vis-à-vis other nations in terms of 2012 Q1 PMI and new orders. It does not look good -- better than Greece, but not by much.
The result of all that bad news tends to be a reduction in revenue, profits, and probably margins; and therefore likely also dividends by many Spanish companies.
MSCI Spain Index vs. S&P 500, the EU, Germany, France and Italy Since the U.S. Stock Market Bottom in March 2009:
The S&P 500 (proxy SPY) is in the best shape now (black line in the chart). Germany (proxy EWG) is in the second best shape, having formerly been ahead of the S&P 500 in 2011. The eurozone (proxy EZU) and France (proxy EWQ) are at the same level. Italy (proxy EWI) and Spain (proxy EWP) are bringing up the rear with Spain a bit ahead of Italy -- both down quite substantially from the early 2011 highs, before the Europe debt crisis became a headline issue.
Top Ten Constituents of MSCI Spain Index + Two Good Dividend Performers From the index:
This table lists the top ten holdings of the MSCI index (and EWP, the Spain ETF). I also shows two stocks from a lower weight in the index that have good yields and a consistent history of dividends and dividend increases -- through and since 2009 up to the present.
The data in the chart is the percent weight in the index, the rank in the index, the indicated yield, the market-cap in U.S. dollars, the trailing payout ratio, the trailing P/E ratio, the forward estimated P/E ratio, the PEG ratio, the enterprise value to EBITDA, the price-to-sales and the price-to-book ratio.
The yields are mostly high, but you will note that some of the stocks have payout ratios above 100%. Some have announced plans to reduce dividends.
The symbols used are the local Spanish market symbols. Some of the stocks have U.S. ADRs (some exchange listed and some pink sheets). We discourage the use of pink sheets in most instances. The two stocks that we have identified as potentially interesting dividend stocks do not have exchange listed ADRs.
The companies in the list are (local market symbols):
|BBVA||Banco Bilboa Vizcaya Argenta|
|SAB||Banco de Sabadell|
|GAS||Gas Natural SDG|
|AMS||Amadeus IT Holdings|
Price, Earnings and Dividend Charts:
These charts in local currency from CorporateInformation, plot up to five years of prices, earnings and dividends. You fairly quickly see which have good looking dividend curves and which do not.
TEF has a nice historical dividend curve, but they have announced that they may have to reduce dividends, and their payout is over 100%.
SAN has an OK looking dividend curve, but they are a bank, and we wouldn't go near any bank in Spain at this time -- and they also have a payout above 100%.
ABE has a nice looking dividend curve, but the yield is not particularly high, and growth is weak, according to the Wright's rating.
AMS might end up being attractive, but does not have enough history at this time, and the yield is unremarkable.
REE and ENG have attractive yields, consistent dividend payment histories, non-excessive valuation multiples, comparatively stable prices, and an infrastructural character, which may help insulate them somewhat from the unemployment problem.
REE is a power grid management company, and ENG is a gas pipeline company. ENG has a near 100% payout, but like pipeline companies in the U.S., payout is better measured versus cash flow.
Business Descriptions for REE and ENG:
REE: Red Electrica Corporacion SA is a Spain-based company primarily engaged, through its subsidiaries and affiliates, in the energy sector. The Company specializes in the transmission of electric energy, as well as in the operation of electric systems. The Company manages the Spanish high-voltage transmission grid and is responsible for its development, maintenance and improvement of the network's installations. The Company's activities also include the coordination between the generation, transmission and distribution of electric energy.
ENG: Enagas SA is a Spain-based company primarily engaged in the transport and underground storage of natural gas, as well as in the regasification of natural gas to the National Pipeline Network. The Company operates a network of more than 9,000 kilometers of high-pressure gas pipelines located in the Spanish territory that have international connections with France, Portugal and Morocco. Its facilities also include three regasification plants operating in Barcelona, Cartagena and Huelva, and two underground natural gas storage units established in Huesca and Biscay. In addition, the Company offers such services as offloading liquefied natural gas (LNG) from ships to regasification terminals; LNG, carbon dioxide, hydrogen and biogas tank loading; development of direct gas pipelines; laboratory certification services and other services related to infrastructure.
Financial Dimensions of REE and ENG:
|Total Debt/Total Assets||0.55||0.64|
Dividend Payment History of REE and ENG:
Spain is a wreck. Things will likely get worse. There are much safer places to invest.
However, if you wish to pick through the rubble, and find potentially interesting dividend opportunities, that have a good history and some logic for a good future, REE and ENG may be worth a further look.
As core infrastructure companies, without which the country would have some difficulty operating, these two are prospects for further research for those long-term investors who are searching for equity income and growth.
THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY THOSE STOCKS. IT IS A RATIONAL FILTERING OF WHAT IS AVAILABLE IN SPAIN THAT MIGHT POSSIBLY BE INTERESTING. DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK.
Disclosure: QVM has no positions in any of the Spanish stocks identified in this article as of the creation date of this article (April 16, 2012).
General Disclaimer: This article provides opinions and information, but does not contain recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Do your own research or obtain suitable personal advice. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. This article is presented subject to our full disclaimer found on the QVM site available here.
Extra Risk on Non-U.S. Exchanges: If securities on non-U.S. exchanges were identified, our supplemental disclaimer is available here.