Summary of Index Daily Closings for Week Ending January 28, 2005

This week the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 34.21 points, in a narrow but volatile range. Monday started out down, in line with our Short-term TII reading of negative (25.50) before a small corrective move pushed prices up on Tuesday and Wednesday with unimpressive volume and breadth. Friday's decline was on the highest volume for the week. Significant bottoms generally occur after a few days of panic selling. As you'll see when we cover the Elliott Wave count for the major averages, this coming week should bring a wave three of a larger degree wave three price decline - the perfect set up for such panic selling.

So far in 2005, the Dow Industrials are down 355.81 points (3.3 percent). But for those Bulls who were so thrilled with the post election rally, chew on this: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently below the 2003 year end level. This is a Bear market, not a Bull market in stocks. Has been since 2000.

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This week the Short-term Technical Indicator Index comes in at negative (39.75), indicating a decline is probable. This indicator is a useful predictor of equity market moves over the next two weeks, both as to direction and to a lesser extent strength of move. For example, readings near zero indicate narrow sideways moves are probable. Readings closer to +/-100 indicate with a higher degree of confidence that an impulsive move up or down is likely over the short run. Market conditions can change on a dime, or the Plunge Protection Team can come in and temporarily stop market slides, so it may be unwise to trade off this weekly measured indicator.

The Intermediate-term Technical Indicator Index is useful for monitoring what's over the horizon - over the next twelve weeks. It serves as an early warning system for unforeseen trend changes of considerable magnitude. This week the Intermediate-term TII comes in at negative (31.63).

One of our objectives for Paid Subscribers will be to help you make profitable trading decisions. That involves knowing when a storm is approaching so you can hit the sidelines, knowing when the storm passes so you can jump back in. It also involves recognizing potential options trading opportunities for those with a little more risk appetite. For others, the entire market game is pure entertainment. Regardless, the next four charts, in themselves, should be worth the nominal cost of subscription.

This week we are rolling out four brand-spanking new charts that we believe will be most helpful to investors and traders alike. Interpreting and applying them is a judgment call that we intend to assist you with. These charts tie in nicely with our new service, soon to arrive, Trader's Corner. Like anything involving technical analysis of the markets, there are no perfect charts, no 100 percent guarantees. However, there certainly are tools that increase the probabilities of forecasting market turns and we believe the next four charts will become right-hand instruments for many of our subscribers. We intend to update and present them often, usually more than once a week, so you can have the best information possible to make key financial decisions.

Other website services offer similar data, but many are charging thousands of dollars per year. Our goal is to keep technical market information affordable to the widest cross-section of investors possible.

All four charts analyze the Dow Industrials. The first chart calculates the number of stocks whose price closed above its 30 Day Moving Average. Each day's percent is plotted, creating a pattern that does a terrific job of measuring momentum exhaustion on a short-to-intermediate term basis, the typical two-to-three month moves stocks take from significant lows to significant highs. Plotted above this indicator is the actual closing value of the DJIA each day. You can see that the correlation is fantastic. Sometimes we get an early warning signal where the DJIA actually doesn't turn for a week or so. Other times the turn is almost immediate. That's where the judgment comes in. However, since this chart is identifying intermediate-term trends, investing early is not a bad strategy. The buy/sell signal would occur once the indicator turns from its oversold or overbought level.

The second chart on the next page is similar to the first, but measures a shorter-term horizon. This chart calculates and plots the percent of Dow Industrials stocks that closed each day above their 10 Day Moving Average. What this indicator picks up are the small turns - the Elliott Wave smaller degree turns inside the larger significant wave unfolding. I like this chart in conjunction with EW analysis because it pinpoints likely wave turns. To know whether the move will be significant enough to trade or not, we turn to the EW count we monitor. Thus, for example, one time this 10 Day indicator hits overbought, it may signal a tradable price move is next (more than 200 points let's say) if the Elliott Wave completing is a corrective wave 2, 4 or b. On the other hand, another time this indicator hitting an overbought reading may not signal a tradable price move coming because we just had an EW impulse move, waves 1, 3, 5, a, or c. Thus in that case, by putting the two sciences together, we conclude we will sit on the sidelines on the next move because it will likely lack power.

The first chart on page 5, our third chart, calculates the percent of stocks above their 5 Day Moving Average. The value here is it picks up most of the short-term gyrations. This could prove valuable to folks who like to take very short-term positions, trading in and out inside a week, over a few days. One way to use this chart is as a "get out" chart. That is important in options trading as options have premium time decay that can offset the gain from a price move in the investor's direction. So, if a very short-term trader wants to know when the risk is high of a day-to-day reversal, he can watch this chart. When this reading reaches 80 percent or 15 percent, expect some kind of reversal, even if it is only a 1/2 percent move over the next day or two.

The fourth chart, shown at the bottom of page 5, is a 14 Day Stochastic for the Dow Industrials, which calculates and plots the percent of stocks that closed above their 14 Day Moving Average, and compares it to a slower calculation of the same, a 5 Day Moving Average of the 14 Day indicator. This chart is better for identifying points of trend reversal risk than in actually signaling a turn, although it does do that too. Whenever the faster line crosses below the slower, it signals a move down is at risk. Whenever the faster line crosses above the slower line, it signals the potential for a turn up. The problem with this indicator is the back and forth crossovers that occur from time to time that make an investment decision difficult. However, once the faster line makes a clean breakaway from the slower, the probability is high that directional momentum is high. Even though you may have missed the first 15 percent of the move, there should still be plenty more price move coming to justify entry. It has excellent value in telling us when to exit. Once the fast crosses over the slow, prior positions will likely start losing value.

What is very nice, is when all four charts line up - that is, they all hit overbought or oversold readings together. That further raises already high probabilities even higher of a tradable directional turn.

So, where do we stand at Friday's close? No man's land. There are no bifurcation points indicated by any of these charts. The 30 Day MA chart is showing a pattern similar to what we saw back in March, June, and October 2004. The indicator has risen from near oversold levels, but its upward progress has stalled around the 40 to 50 percent area. Should it decline from here it would imply more downside before reaching a significant bottom. This translates into the necessity of an EW wave three and /or five down yet to come. The 30 Day MA sits at a reading of 30%. The 10 Day MA chart sits at 43% and has formed a lower top, implying more downside to follow. Until it hits 5% to 10%, a significant trend turn up is not likely. The Percent of DJIA stocks over their 5 day moving average is at 40% at Friday's close, indicating no real high probability of a short-term trend turn up at this time. Thus, more downside is probable. The 14 Day stochastic's fast indicator is at 40% and is above its slow indicator reading of 34%. However, the slow is catching up to the fast, warning that stocks may be ready to turn down in earnest again.

The chart below is a contrary sentiment indicator, the 10 Day Moving Average CBOE Call/Put Option ratio. No buy signal yet. Significant bottoms occur when this ratio falls to 1.00, then turns decisively up. We currently sit at a 1.21 reading, meaning the sell signal generated December 2nd, 2004 remains in force.

The chart at the top of the page shows a measure of Bullish/Bearish sentiment, the SPX to VIX ratio. It is a contrary indicator under the theory that once the pendulum swings from overpessimism to over-optimism, the pendulum is about to swing back again the other way. This has implications for stocks. Whenever this ratio rose above 68, the S&P 500 not just fell, but crashed. Whenever this ratio fell below 35, nice rallies started. Two exceptions. Back in 1998/1999 we saw a longterm pattern that led to an extreme peak. Because it took so long to develop, the subsequent crash was the start of a massive Bear market. Same pattern has showed up again from 2003 into 2004, meaning another major Bear is about to start, or may in fact be starting. Note the similar upside down "V" patterns evidencing the pinnacles. Friday's reading rose to a Crash-warning level of 88.47.

The charts on the next page (courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) show the S&P 500 has topped, and is now declining in the first major leg of what is expected to be a precipitous long-term decline. The top chart identifies a Head & Shoulders Top pattern that may have been confirmed last week. The minimum downside target is 1,130. The Elliott Wave count shows two pairs of waves one and two down, of Minuette and Micro degrees. That means next up is a pair of threes down, which should be impulsive. The RSI nudged back up to neutral territory from oversold courtesy of this week's small rally. Momentum remains down. The second chart on the next page isolates a Bearish Flag pattern that has formed over the past two weeks. Bearish Flag patterns occur whenever either Bulls or Bears recently had sizable gains that were made quickly. The Flag portion indicates indecision on whether the carnage is over. Inevitably, the profitable side wins out and the trend continues from before the pause. The length of the decline remaining is measurable by the amount of the flagpole's decline, to 1,134ish.

As an analyst, the first thing I see when I look at the above chart of the Dow Industrials is a textbook perfect Head & Shoulders Topping pattern, with perfect symmetry and a Right Shoulder that is smaller than the left. That is a very reliable Bearish pattern we are staring at folks. It is a pattern of distribution whereby investors in the know - the big money investors - are selling as quietly as they can because they know something the amateurs don't, and want to get out now at top dollar. This type of price action leads to swift panic selling (not a crash - yet. More on that later).

Lo and behold, the pattern ties in perfectly with the second indicator that grabs our eye, that the Elliott Wave count is ready, aimed, and about to fire two barrels at once, two degrees of wave threes down at us - most probably this coming week. At best, Micro degree 2 could form a more complex back and forth pattern and lollygag for another week, but we don't think this is the top probability. Micro degree wave 3 down and Minuette degree wave iii down look antsy. Now we're not talking about a major decline here, as the H&S pattern only has a minimum downside target of 10,100ish. With Minuette iv up and v down to follow, maybe prices kiss 10,000 on this trip south - but that's probably it. Neither the RSI nor the MACD have fallen to levels seen at prior significant bottoms, further supporting our view that the DJIA could fall another 400 +/- points over the next two weeks.

This decline may not wipe out all of the post election rally, and not bust to new lows, below October's 9708, however remember, this is just Minor degree wave 1 down of an eventual five-wave decline that could include a Minor degree wave 3 down crash in late February or March 2005. The next significant rally once this leg bottoms should be very telling of the buying strength left in this market.

Back on December 3rd, 2004, in issue no. 104 (available in the archives at www.technicalindicatorindex.com) we wrote, "The Dow Transportation Average has risen 25 percent since August 2004 without a correction - which meets the criteria for a Parabolic Spike. The PE for this index is over 90x. What we have here is a manic bubble. Parabolic Spikes do not have soft landings. Once the air comes out of this balloon, this index is going to crash and burn."

Since December 30th's 3,823.96 intraday top, the Trannies plummeted 352.79 points (9.2 percent) in just 15 Trading days through January 21st. This was predicted perfectly by the patterns on the chart above. A five-wave impulse wave down completed Friday, January 21st, the bottom of Minuette degree wave i down, and it looks like Minuette ii topped Friday morning, the 28th. We cannot completely rule out ii morphing into a complex pattern, delaying iii's big decline, as ii has only retraced 29.7 percent of i down. 38.2% would lift Trannies to 3,596. The RSI is no longer oversold and is thus recharged to go lower - and the MACD, while curling up from oversold, looks to us like a Bear Hook (an unreliable bottom). We haven't really seen a selling panic yet, but that should change soon as Minuette degree wave iii unfolds. Prices should eventually return to the start of the Rising Bearish Wedge - to around 2,750.

It is normal for the Trannies to lead the Industrials on the way down during major declines. Happened in 1999/2000. Could be happening again now.

The Economy:

The Commerce Department reported that Durable Goods Orders rose 0.6 percent in December, and excluding transportation rose 2.1 percent. That's healthy if true.

The National Association of Realtors announced that Existing Home Sales set a record for the year 2004. That's nice.

The Commerce Department reported that fourth quarter 2004 GDP grew the slowest since the first quarter 2003, up 3.1 percent. Despite record deficits and a plunging U.S. Dollar, exports fell sharply.

The Labor Department reported that Initial Jobless Claims rose to 325,000 from its previous week's guesstimate of 318,000. The number of people continuing on unemployment benefits rose 142,000 to 2.84 million for the week ended January 15th, the largest jump in six months. There's a disconnect.

And the Conference Board released its latest survey of Consumer Confidence, showing improvement to 103.4 in January from 102.7 in December, conflicting results with the University of Michigan's figures last week.

Money Supply, the Dollar, & Gold:

M-3 increased by quite a bit this week, up 26.0 billion, as expected in connection with the Fed's stealth liquefication of the financial markets, a program whereby they give a pop to M-3 every three weeks in order to support markets during this high crash-risk period of time. They did the exact same thing last April/May 2004 with success. Over the past five weeks, the Fed has pumped $90.3 billion of money into the system while jawboning just the opposite position. If you are keeping score at home, the Fed is growing the money supply at an annualized rate of growth of ten percent. Does that sound like they are the least bit worried about an overheating economy? Quite an operation going on here. The Fed raises short-term interest rates, pretends to be more concerned with inflation than deflation, then goes out and hyper-inflates the money supply by an annualized 10 percent. Truth is, they see the enormous systemic risks at this time, see the awful technical charts, and no doubt privately acknowledge behind their sacrosanct halls that a financial meltdown is once again at risk. The goal, I suppose, is to fake out the Bond market, hoping to keep long-term rates tame while supporting equities. Sooner or later the truth always comes out and markets respond accordingly. As coach used to tell us in basketball, follow their belly, not their hands.

At some point you have to believe that printing paper out of thin air and lending it out for free will no longer provide a safety net for financial markets. It's been a good run, but common sense says this dog soon won't hunt. But hey, why not? Go for it. It's one way to repudiate debts that are astronomical. And if you run the Fed, you won't be around when the payback comes anyway. Won't be your problem. Good for Gold, bad for the Dollar.

The trade-weighted U.S. Dollar closed Friday at 83.46 and looks like it wrapped up Minor degree wave 4, topping this week at 84.08, essentially a double top with last Friday's high. At this level, Minuette degree wave c of Minor degree wave 4 is 61.8 percent of Minuette degree wave a of 4. This is a common Fibonacci relationship in a-b-c corrective moves. Last week we presented an alternate count that considers primary degree wave (2) up underway. This week we hold less confidence in that alternate scenario and believe our top count is a stronger probability than we thought a week ago. Why? Because the MACD is now rolling over, and the RSI has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern often seen at wave fours, not impulse wave ones. Next should be a decline to a retest of the 80.39 December 31st, 2004 low, which we expect will be taken out, with a target into the high 70s before a sustainable intermediate- term bottom is reached. If the Fed is back to pumping money at an annualized rate of 10 percent, the Dollar is going to have trouble getting traction any time soon.

The chart at the top of the next page shows that Gold finished its Bearish Flag pattern shown three weeks ago, at the bottom boundary of the Ascending Bullish Triangle pattern, completing Minor degree corrective wave 4 down. Next should be a decent rally that has the potential to reach 500 over the next three to six months, a fifth of a fifth wave to complete primary degree (1) up in this Bull market in Gold. This target is calculated by taking the widest distance of the Ascending Triangle and adding that to the point of the upside breakout. Both the RSI and the MACD have reversed up from oversold levels. If the Fed is going to pump M-3 like we think they will, Gold will benefit.

Very little change in Silver this week. Silver has formed an unconfirmed Bullish Head & Shoulders bottom. A decisive rise above 7.00 portends at least 7.50 short-term.

It looks as if the Gold Bugs Index ($HUI) is going to get caught in the downdraft of the general equity market slide now underway. There is a difference between Gold stocks and Gold the metal. The metal is above ground, supply certain and limited, and is a monetary store of value. The Gold stocks are managed companies subject to risks of any company - legal, regulatory, operational, managerial, production, research and development, resource availability and cost, etc… The bulk of its Gold inventory is underground, quantity and extraction uncertain. This puts the $HUI in the unique category of a hybrid, subject to occasional general equity market influence. Now is one of those times.

The first leg down inside the C wave down of a year long A-down, B-up, C-down corrective Intermediate degree wave 2 looks complete, with Minuette degree ii up possibly complete as well. Should ii not be over, and morph into something more complex, given the negative technical big picture for stocks, we don't believe this countertrend rally will carry much force, possibly lifting prices to the 218 area, a 38.2 percent retrace of the decline since November 5th's 248.18 high, which has essentially been a 19.3 percent crash. A rally from here is not starting anywhere near the previous lows for the MACD, nor RSI, a clue that once the corrective Minuette degree wave ii is complete, more strong downside action is likely.

Based upon the Elliott Wave count, a 38.2 percent retrace of Intermediate degree wave 1's rally from 35.31 on November 16th, 2000 to 250.59 on January 6th, 2004 suggests a bottom from the current Intermediate degree wave 2 decline of 168.35. A 50 percent retrace takes prices to 142.95. A 61.8 percent retrace drives prices to 117.55 before the next major intermediate Bull run gets started. We favor the 38.2 percent or 50 percent retrace scenarios because in addition to the EW count, a Bearish Head & Shoulders pattern also suggests more significant downside is probable, that once prices break decisively below 200, a minimum downside target could drive prices to as low as 152ish. Interestingly, should Minor degree C end up equal to Minor degree A, that would suggest a bottom of 154, very near the H&S target. After the carnage, we should be at the bottom of Minor degree C of 2, to be followed by a powerful rally for several months or even years, Intermediate degree wave 3.

Crude Oil is a "pick'em" with two valid potential patterns arguing for either much higher prices or much lower. We wish it was more clear right now, but that's the nature of Oil. Long-term, prices remain nicely inside their rising Bullish trend-channel. The Elliott Wave count for the rally since 2001 suggests there is one more multi-month meaningful increase in Crude prices coming, once Intermediate degree wave 4 completes. It is possible wave 4 finished in December '04 and that a higher thrust is just getting started. A move to the upper trend-line would make sense as the other four turns bounced off upper and lower boundaries. That portends Oil rising to $60/bbl over the next 3 to 6 months, which fits with the Bearish stock charts. However, there is also the possibility that Oil is forming a Bearish Head & Shoulders pattern that portends prices declining to $27. For that to happen, prices must soon break below $41/bbl. The MACD is rolling over, so this H&S pattern warrants careful consideration.

Japan's Tokyo Nikkei has formed a Bearish Head & Shoulders Top.

Again, as last week, this week Bond Prices broke higher as we expected per our Elliott Wave count. Last week we were calling for a Submicro degree wave {4} down to be followed by a Submicro {5} up, which is exactly what we got. This is instructive for those who suggest that EW doesn't work. The only way we could have known Bond prices would rise was the EW count. The RSI was overbought and the MACD was neutral. The EW count needed a Minuette fifth to complete and that is what we based our forecast upon. Bonds trekked higher from their Minuette degree wave iv bottom. The chart on the next page (courtesy of www.stockcharts.com) is instructive for the short-term progress we expect Minuette Degree wave v to take. There is a four month Bullish Head & Shoulders bottom that has formed that is textbook perfect, and that may have been confirmed this week with Friday, January 28th's thrust to a new high of 114.84. The Bullish pattern was formed by the price action of Minuette iii's top, Minuette iv's bottom, and the first three Micro degree waves of Minuette v. The minimum upside target from this pattern is around 118, which means Micro degree wave 5 and Minuette degree wave v are going to extend. For this sort of bullish price action to occur, one must speculate that equities are about to take a barrel over the falls. It also means the rhetoric of the Federal Reserve is pure hogwash.

The long-term Head & Shoulders top is still in play, and unless prices blast past the top of the Head, above 121.45, the pattern will remain in force. It is a massive creature with ominous repercussions should the highly reliable pattern be confirmed. To confirm, prices would have to drop decisively below the neckline, below 100. If that were to occur, the minimum downside target would be 79-ish.

Once Bond prices complete the five-wave impulse rally that will wrap up Minuette degree v of corrective Minor degree c of an a-b-c retrace, we expect the Trade Deficit and Dollar damage to catch up to Bond prices as they head lower hard and fast, fulfilling the larger Bearish Head & Shoulder's pattern's forecast. The only thing delaying this would be a massive deflationary Recession that it does appear Bonds are seeing. But even then, the Fed would likely pump so much money into the system, Bonds would tank anyway. This rise in long-term rates that we expect may not begin for another few months, but when it comes, it should spell disaster for the Real Estate Bubble.

Bottom Line: It looks like the move down from late December in equities is about to encounter panic selling, an exhaustion move that should set the table for a countertrend corrective rally. This decline probably has one, maybe two weeks left in it, then a rally which we do not believe will reach new highs. Then, a precipitous decline - a crash - is a strong possibility into March 2005. Caution remains warranted.

"Then I said to you, "Do not be shocked, nor fear them.
The Lord your God who goes before you will Himself fight
on your behalf just as He did for you in Egypt before your eyes,
And in the wilderness where you saw how the Lord your God carried
you, just as a man carries his son, in all the way which
you have walked, until you came to this place."
Deuteronomy 1: 29-31

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2005 Promises to be volatile, with many surprises and opportunities along the way. We hope you join us for this exciting adventure!

Note: VIX and Oil drop.