EUR/USD’s latest bearish reversal pattern is testing psychological support at 1.3000 and has activated our model portfolio short position.

The move is being weighed by a recent DeMark™ exhaustion signal and is likely to lead to a further increase of volatility over the next few weeks.

A decisive close below 1.3000 is required to unlock the important multimonth reversal pattern for a fast move into 1.2626 (16 Jan swing low).

Meanwhile, only a sustained daily close back above 1.3284 (01st May high), puts this scenario on hold for a potential recovery into our upside target zone at 1.3459/60 (200-day average).

Inversely, the USD Index recovery has extended back above its multiweek triangle consolidation pattern. Support remains at 78.60 and 78.09.

Expect these levels to act as one of the last points of defence for a relaunch of the greenback’s recovery which is still part of the bullish cycle into 80.73 (15th March high) and 81.78 (13th Jan swing/12 month high).

Daily Technical Report