Right now we are all in the unfortunate position of being hostage to the dubious forecasting abilities of the Fed and other Central Bankers, as if they are not proactive in putting in place another round of easing, just about every financial market will plunge.
Even though it seems like they've done so much already -- and there is political pressure on them to let up -- once they started down this path then there was no choice but to keep increasing the flow of new currency. This is a big monetary experiment spiraling out of control.
There is little doubt that gold will be much higher into the cycle peak scheduled for mid-2013, but there is cause for concern about a hyper-deflationary episode prior to that run up, similar to the Lehman debacle in late 2008. Of course markets will rally right back when the Fed reacts with a huge liquidity push, but once the chaos starts, the damage will be unpredictable.
Theoretically the gold market should be able to "look beyond" these sorts of liquidity concerns, with the precognitive forward-looking ability that markets usually possess, because there is little doubt about how central banks will respond -- with a fire hose of freshly-minted dollars, euros, yen, renminbi, and soon enough, even new drachmas.
But it does seem like this Fed-based market environment has brought on a major contraction in the ability of markets to discount the future. Markets are seeing forward only a few weeks into the future, instead of months, or even years ahead, as they have in the past.
My theory is essentially every financial market is currently not experiencing proper price discovery, due to massive manipulation by central banks. This is especially true for bond markets and currencies, and by extension, gold. After all, what is quantitative easing other than the Fed intervening in the bond market to buy bonds? And they are an unnatural buyer. They don't buy to capture profits or hedge existing positions, as market participants are supposed to, and they aren't using currency backed by labor and savings - they are, quite literally, using "monopoly money" of their own creation.
Their interventions in bond markets are influencing the price discovery mechanism that functions so well in freely-traded markets, and is therefore contracting the market's ability to properly discount the future.
Because of this we should expect more volatility in the months ahead, as this "short-term syndrome" becomes even more heightened with further Fed interventions into the markets.
It would not be out-of-character in this environment to see a big drop in most markets -- with everybody screaming about deflation -- to be followed by a huge rally, with everybody then screaming about hyper-inflation. Opinions will be changing rapidly, based entirely on what the market is doing, and not based on a coherent view of the future.
This is why the underlying cycle energy, which is especially critical in the gold market, will have such a massive influence into the next 21-month peak.
Over the past month I have undertaken an exhaustive study of this long bull market in gold, to further unravel the structure of its price patterns and timing cycles, with a specific emphasis on studying the timing cycle that has caused a peak in gold every 21 months.
Sometimes when you look in hyper-focus on a subject, the results can be disappointing. But this was decidedly not the case with gold, and I looked at -- quite literally -- every trading day since 1999. This bull market pattern has been highly precise in its timing and structure, and I believe this structure will only become more precise into mid-2013.
I have just put the finishing touches on a lengthy Special Report on the gold cycle into 2013. In this report it became necessary to venture into topics that I have not previously discussed regarding the "how and why" of cycles in both the natural world, and in financial markets.
These are my own theories that I have been developing and working on over the last 5 years, and they have wide-ranging implications, beyond just financial markets.
It became necessary to introduce the basics of these ideas on why cycles form in just about every facet of life on earth, to frame some important points about the gold cycle into mid-2013. You'll see why when you read the report. I think you'll be amazed.
Right now we have a discounted subscription offer which will carry through the cycle peak in mid-2013. Only with this offer do you get access to the Special Report, titled "The Gold Cycle into 2013".