• 556 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 557 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 559 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 958 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 963 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 965 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 968 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 968 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 969 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 971 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 971 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 975 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 975 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 976 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 978 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 979 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 982 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 983 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 983 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 985 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

The State of the Trend

Last week's suggestion that traders should be selling rallies proved to be the right strategy all week long. The SPX lost 58 points and market internals deteriorated even further. The daily and weekly trend remains down, while the monthly trend is flat.

But just as it is true that markets don't go up forever, they don't fall forever either. At some point a sharp corrective rally is imminent, and it could come at any time now. The reasons for this are manyfold, and below we'll focus on a few of them.

The SPX daily declined to the 50% Fib retracement level which, according to Gann among others, is the retracement zone where you would expect strong support to come into play:


Source: OT Fibonacci app

At the same time, the SPX weekly is closing in on the 32% Fib retracement level:

Taken together, this means that there is a narrow but strong support band forming at the 1289.5 - 1290.5 level.

In addition, the Trend Oscillator is fast approaching the oversold zone, usually associated with reversals:


Source: OT Trend

And last, but not least, the SPX index is nearing channel support, from where one would expect a tradeable bounce to occur:


Source: OddsTrader

In summary, the SPX registered a significant drop last week and has reached oversold technical levels which are usually associated with counter-trend moves. Watch for a drop below 1289 - 1290 as a sign that the downtrend is continuing, while a rally above Friday's high at 1312 will be the first indication that the worst may be over for now.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment