• 1,115 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 1,116 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 1,117 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,517 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,522 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,524 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,527 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,527 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,528 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,530 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,530 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,534 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,534 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,535 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,537 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,538 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,541 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,542 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,542 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,544 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

The State of the Trend

Last week's suggestion that traders should be selling rallies proved to be the right strategy all week long. The SPX lost 58 points and market internals deteriorated even further. The daily and weekly trend remains down, while the monthly trend is flat.

But just as it is true that markets don't go up forever, they don't fall forever either. At some point a sharp corrective rally is imminent, and it could come at any time now. The reasons for this are manyfold, and below we'll focus on a few of them.

The SPX daily declined to the 50% Fib retracement level which, according to Gann among others, is the retracement zone where you would expect strong support to come into play:


Source: OT Fibonacci app

At the same time, the SPX weekly is closing in on the 32% Fib retracement level:

Taken together, this means that there is a narrow but strong support band forming at the 1289.5 - 1290.5 level.

In addition, the Trend Oscillator is fast approaching the oversold zone, usually associated with reversals:


Source: OT Trend

And last, but not least, the SPX index is nearing channel support, from where one would expect a tradeable bounce to occur:


Source: OddsTrader

In summary, the SPX registered a significant drop last week and has reached oversold technical levels which are usually associated with counter-trend moves. Watch for a drop below 1289 - 1290 as a sign that the downtrend is continuing, while a rally above Friday's high at 1312 will be the first indication that the worst may be over for now.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment