EUR/USD is pushing to fresh new lows ahead of the NFP release, while maintaining oversold price conditions, with both momentum and net short positions holding at their extremes.

Expect a temporary relief bounce over the coming sessions into 1.2590, then 1.2650 and 1.2824 (22nd May). Only a sustained move at these levels would neutralize the extreme market condition.

In terms of the big picture, key structural support remains at 1.2125/30, which would equate to EUR/USD losing half of its gains from the bull market taken from the year 2000.

Inversely, the USD Index is pushing back into overbought conditions, after already gaining over 5% in just 3 weeks. Key support can be found at 81.78 (13th Jan peak).

This week's US Non-Farm Payroll will likely influence. Momentum has decelerated since early 2012 and is likely to extend into the key level at 54k (2011 low), potentially renewing safe haven flows back into the USD.

Daily Technical Report