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The State of the Trend

With a little help from the rumor mill, those who heeded our advice last week, that a bounce is coming, were able to profit handsomely from the 50+ point SPX rebound. And the kicker is that market internals haven't reached overbought levels yet:

OEX and Barometer

However, before becoming giddy with the prospect of this rally extending for a few more days, let's take a look at some retracement levels. There is resistance at 1330, and a very strong resistance band at the 1340-1360 level. Therefore, the likelihood of momentum carrying the SPX past these levels seems negligible at the moment:

The weekly SPX retracement chart which suggested that support is in the vicinity of 1265-1275, home of the 38.2% retracement level of the July '10 rally, now warns to expect resistance at 1340, which happens to be the 23.6% retracement of the same rally and the 38.2% retracement of the December '11 rally. Source: OT Fibonacci

The weekly Hurst channels are mixed, while both of the daily channels are pointing up and projecting resistance in the same 1340-1360 zone:

Source: OddsTrader

We'll conclude this week's analysis with the daily Trend Oscillator from OT Trend which suggests that last week's rally is fast approaching overbought levels:

In summary, while Euro centric news dominates the media waves, that hasn't prevented the markets from continuing to follow their overbought/oversold ebb and flow, and that is not likely to change just because of the Grexit drama.


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