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Roll Up, Place Your Bets, Do We Have a Crisis Yet?

Ben Bernanke

There is a few short days before a major market moving event, Greece Elections. Well not so much the elections themselves more so the policy that flows after that matters. ECB and FED how to play this?

Flex Zulauf said that in the next decade he expects the ECB and FED balance sheet to grow equal to GDP of each, at the moment they are 30% there.

However Ben Bernanke has stated that each time they use QE, the risk reward ratio diminishes and if required QE will only used in a time of crisis (or some one from the house on the hill calls 'hey dude we got a crisis here!)

The SP500 is down 10%, not yet a crisis, however down 15% warming up, and down 20% the whole financial industry will be screaming for more QE to hold up their portfolios and of course careers. Cynical yes, true, of course! The risk on and risk off charts suggest the time is nigh, so place your bets and wagers it is 'pause hold and recover' or 'plunge' time.

The true story of risk on and risk off is expressed by the AUDJPY. Price is once again ready to bounce off support for another risk on run.

The perfect health of QQQ is still holding up. A great entry zone is at hand. Right on support.


The eggheads in control will try and influence the Greek voter to stay with the Euro, the QE fan club will cheer for their master. The Fed will leak a yah or nay via selected news sources, Fed members will give speeches proclaiming their importance and need to do something. It's show business folks, once again the world awaits the QE festival of print or die (or true price discovery).

In the words of Marc Faber, they will print QE3, 4, 5,... 75. But the timing is never so easy. Crisis point may not be until after the Greek Elections, maybe just prior to June 20 FOMC meeting, Mr Market is clever like that!

PS: Been watching too much 'Game of Thrones'. More things change, more they stay the same.


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