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Daily Analysis

Greek elections are finally upon us and central bankers are ready to intervene next Monday if needed.

I have no idea of what price is doing in the immediate time frame, but I remain confident the price has not completed a Zig Zag from the June 4 low.

Therefore there is a pending wave (c) up, with an "assigned" target range = 1344 - 1363 and two potential "stopping points" either at the 50 d MA or an unfilled gap at 1353.39.

Since In my opinion we are dealing with a countertrend wave (B) rebound there is no "assurance" of where it will top.

As long as we don't see a deterioration of market momentum & breadth indicators, the trend is now unquestionably up.

Once an impulsive or ending diagonal wave (c) up can be detected then we should be able to have a better clue regarding the potential upside left.

The immediate pivot support remains at the 10 d MA = 1307.

If it is breached price will most likely retest the 200 d MA = 1291.

The Immediate resistance remains at 1335.52.

If it is broken then the door will be opened for a move towards the mentioned target box.

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Momentum indicators have reversed yesterday's bearish warnings:

  • RSI has moved above the 50 line.
  • Stochastic has not issued a sell signal but it is entering the overbought zone.
  • MACD buy signal triggered on June 6 remains in force.

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The McClellan Oscillator remains bullish friendly, maybe preparing a thrust higher out of a triangle pattern.

NYSE McClellan Oscillator

In the weekly chart below I have my "road map":

  • This is a wave (B) countertrend rebound that should top somewhere below/at 1359.
  • Once the wave (B) is in place I expect a wave (C) down with a potential target at the Trend Line support off the March 2009 low.
  • So far the weekly candlestick is a Spinning Top. It is not a bullish candlestick; it is a consequence of market indecision.

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I will be spending the weekend in Asturia with wife and friends; therefore I will not post my usual weekend update on Sunday.

Have a great weekend everyone.


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