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The State of the Trend

Last week we concluded that although market internals haven't reached overbought levels, the indices will have a hard time sustaining their momentum and will stall at the strong 1340-1360 resistance band. After gapping up and being rejected from that zone on Monday, the SPX managed to barely break above 1340 during the last hours of trading on Friday.

Source: OT Fibonacci

Current market internals reflect uncertainty ahead of the Greek elections. They are stuck in the middle of their range, thus giving equal weight to a possible breakdown or breakout:

The weekly Trend Oscillator is in a similar position, closing the week just slightly above the zero line:

Weekly Hurst channels continue to be mixed, while the daily channels are up and still identify 1360 as resistance:

Source: OddsTrader

In summary, since the SPX managed not to close below the pivotal 1276 level, identified by us as critical support at the beginning of April, bulls have been in control and will remain so as long as the index doesn't drop below 1313.


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