Looking at Friday's chart, it sounds very clear that bulls took the lead in the market. Nevertheless, final decision will depend on Greek elections, and everything can happen.
In this context, we decided to hedge our short position on the SPX by a long position on the CAC40. We consider that in case of positive outcome from Greek elections, we should benefit from an important bounce back from both the euro (vs USD) and the CAC40. These gains should more than offset our losses from the short position on the SPX.
In case of negative outcome from Greek elections, we expect a sharp sell off in the euro. In this context our losses on the CAC40 in euro terms should be much lower in usd. On top of that, the SPX should also decline and we should benefit from this decline thanks to our short position.
Looking at our indicators, the Sigma Trend Index (STI) continues to improve from '6' to '19'. This is an important jump and it underlines that we should reach the 1350 - 1360 area in coming days.
The Trend Level (TL) is at '5' (highest level), and the Swing is at '4' (buy territory).
It is important to have a look at our short term sentiment and to notice that the bull sentiment is picking up (at 14%).
In March and May, it reached 20% at its top. So we need to be careful if/when we reach this level.
We believe that the market can reach the 1350-1360 area. If it doesn't, it will be due to a dramatic outcome from Greek election and the end of "current" euro-zone.
- short SPX at 1329,89 (average price)
- long CAC40 at 3068.09 (with Forex at 1.2611) ~ 3869.17 pts in usd terms
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Have a nice week-end,