EUR/USD has met resistance close to 1.2515 as expected leading to a strong push lower towards 1.2400.

This now favours a further extension lower targeting the 1.2288 region once again.

The USD Index also appears strong in the short-term timeframe. However, we need to see a break over 82.89 (8 June high) to open up a full retrace to 83.542. This remains our central scenario, with a sustained push over this level then warning of a substantial extension higher.

We also note that from a weekly perspective, a sustained break under 1.2288 would target the support of a multi month falling channel somewhere in the region of 1.0800.

Daily Technical Report