At this stage, it is difficult to answer this question. The main argument for a major top is based on the achieved retracement. It looks like both the NDX and the Sigma Whole Market Index (Aggregate of 16 US indexes) achieved a zigzag correction (abc-x-abc) and retraced 61.8% of previous decline (April to early June).
When we look at our indicators, we can notice that the Sigma Trend Index declined from '59' to '23' but the trend Level (TL) remains in overbought territory at '5'.
The Power Level (PL) reversed sharply from '4' to '2' telling us that market's internal were weak yesterday.
Looking at the Breadth Index, we have to pay attention to what looks like a negative divergence: higher high in price (blue line) not confirmed by the Breadth Index (red line). This is a warning signal because it signals that this upmove is running out of gasoline:
We are probably at the early stage of (at least) a consolidation after the huge move to the upside started last Friday.
It is still difficult to say (looking at our indicators and to the wave structure) if the counter trend rally (started in early June) is over or not. The main argument in favor of this scenario is the 61.8% retracement achieved on both the NDX and the Sigma Whole Market Index.
Another problem is that both scenario are possible as long as the SPX trades above 1308 (last week low).
For those of you interested in our intraday move, you can visit our site during the day: we post all our trades in real time. You can also subscribe to our twitter account (@SigmaTradingOsc), it is free and you are updated on our latest view/trades.
- short 2.5 SPX at 1331.28 (stop loss at 1385 for 1 std size)
- short 1 CAC at 3254.74 (stop loss at 3297)
- short 1/2 NDX at 2630