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Silver COT (CFTC - Commitment of Traders) for Period 7/27-7/3/2012

Commercials sold -2,788 longs picked up 2,555 shorts to end the week with 44.61% of all open interest, up more than 1% since last week, and now stand as a group at -86,770,000 ounces net short, over 26,000,000 more net short ounces from the previous week. This is almost a complete reversal of the previous week.

Strategy was changed to make speculators think a bottom was in and it was off to the races as most every commentator from here to China was declaring a bottom and nothing but green grass ahead for the longs.

Large speculators picked up 300 longs while covering -3,184 shorts for a net long position increase to 48,530,000 ounces, a huge increase in their net long position of just over 17,000,000 ounces from the prior week.

Small speculators sold off -879 longs and covered a huge -2,738 shorts for a net long position of 38,240,000 ounces a significant increase of almost 10,000,000 ounces net long from the prior week.

There are no surprises this week in this paper game as the commercials played the speculators like a fiddle, I believe. Price bounced off a false bottom at $26.105 to as high as $28.445 but returned right to the $27 area. At that price point, I believe there are no more spec longs to be had for the commercials so if the price drifts steadily up for a few days then we will not see the $26 range right away as I see this past Friday afternoon "bottom" as a repetition of the false bottom set on Friday, June 29th. I think these commercials spend a lot of time in the up state lakes fishing for sport as they are able to bait a hook and jig it around with the best of well-weathered anglers.

As always, for your convenience, if you would like to contact the CFTC and express your views to them, I have provided you their phone numbers and I hope earnestly that you fill up their phone lines: http://www.cftc.gov/Contact/index.htm and email addresses as well:
ggensler@cftc.gov Chairman Gensler
bchilton@cftc.gov Commissioner Chilton
jsommers@cftc.gov Commissioner Sommers
Somalia@cftc.gov Commissioner O'Malia
mwetjen@cftc.gov Commissioner Wetjen
dmeister@cftc.gov Director Meister

Silver COT

See you next week!

 

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