• 503 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 503 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 505 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 905 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 910 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 912 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 915 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 915 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 916 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 918 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 918 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 922 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 922 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 923 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 925 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 926 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 929 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 930 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 930 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 932 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Ian Campbell

Ian Campbell

Through his www.BusinessTransitionSimplified.com website and his Business Transition & Valuation Review newsletter Ian R. Campbell shares his perspectives on business transition, business valuation and world…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Consider Possible Positives, As Well As Possible Negatives

Mainstream and Internet media sources are increasingly, or so it seems, addressing near-term (and perhaps longer-term) problems and prospects faced by resource explorers, developers and producers in circumstances of:

  • the ongoing economic problems faced by many of the developing countries, and signs of a slowdown in Chinese GDP growth;

  • escalating plant construction and operating costs; and,

  • escalating country risk issues that are becoming ever more transparent.

While these things ought not to be discounted at the broad resources companies level, consider what may prove to be the 'flip side' of that negativity, which at a macro level arguably is aimed largely at base metals producers:

  • the price of physical gold broadly is believed to be sensitive to global economic risk;

  • not all gold exploration, development and producing companies are created equal from the point of view of their comparative attributes, only four of which are:

    • 'quality of management',

    • balance sheet strength,

    • ability to obtain financing if necessary, with reasonably balanced resultant share dilutions) in what is clearly a down financial market, or

    • project location in the context of political and societal stability and related risk; and,

  • if the world economy sours further from here in a manner that:

  • negatively affects the supply of physical gold over time, while

  • positively affects the demand for physical gold

the 'best of breed' gold explorers, developers and producers may well reward their respective shareholders in what may prove to be 'bad economic times', particularly where those shareholders exhibit patience and hold their positions as investments, and not as trades - where a good investment result likely would be longer than shorter term in nature.

That said, carefully consider the view expressed in the previous paragraph in the following contexts:

first, as a general observation, commentators and 'stock pundits' often fail to reference overall financial markets conditions and directions when recommending specific companies and investments, as trades, or as both. Importantly, they often seem to make a general unstated assumption that the financial markets are not going to generally go up or down over time as in world and country specific economic conditions change. If you agree with this observation, consider its implications carefully, and carefully consider when making your investment and trading decisions what you think will be the likely near-term direction of the financial markets.

Remember that a commentator could be exactly right with respect to the underlying 'positive attributes' of a particular company, but those 'correct thoughts' could well lead to investment or trading losses if the overall financial markets drop in the near term following a specific company recommendation; and,

  • second, if you are an investor consider carefully:

    • that in the end, the financial markets largely are driven by world and country-specific economic prospects, and

    • a very large component of the current financial market activity is driven by algorithmic trading.

Accordingly, if you are an investor and make 'investments' in today's financial markets environment, be prepared to accept what might be serious ups and downs in the price of a given security through your 'hold period'.

Consider also that:

  • contrary to the opinions of some, not every human financial advisor is completely self-interested, heartless, and uncaring of his/her clients; but,

  • computers run programmatically on 'logic boards embedded with mechanical computer chips'. No computer has a heart.

Topical Reference: Little left to stoke mining stocks, from The Globe and Mail, Kevin Allison, July 16, 2012 - reading time 2 minutes; and Gold mines face radical downsizing, from Miningmx, David McKay, July 16, 2012 - reading time 3 minutes.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment