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The State of the Trend

Kudos to signor Draghi who single handedly sparked a market rally of Olympic proportions. As a result, the SPX remained firmly within the uptrend channel, and reached a preliminary resistance level:

Although market momentum has reached its limits:

market breadth hasn't reached overbought levels yet, suggesting that one more push higher, to coincide with month end window dressing, cannot be excluded:

And since we started this article with a reference to Europe, here's my take on what's going on there. In my view, the Union is going through its own "perestroika" (remember that term?), aimed at keeping the status quo intact. Since the EU is not the Soviet Union, maybe, just maybe, they have a chance at succeeding. If not, however, the end will be very similar. When the parties involved realize that the political/monetary break-up is inevitable, it will happen very quickly, within a matter of weeks. It will, probably, be followed by years of pain and hardship for the masses, but it will not be the end of the world, and a new political/economic entity/ies will emerge.

On that happy and positive note, it's time to enjoy the summer, and let the Games begin!

 

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