• 658 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 658 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 660 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 1,059 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 1,064 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 1,066 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 1,069 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 1,070 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 1,070 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 1,072 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 1,072 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 1,076 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 1,077 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 1,077 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 1,080 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 1,080 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 1,083 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 1,084 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 1,084 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 1,086 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

The Problem With Modern Monetary Theory

Modern monetary theory has been…

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

Ian Campbell

Ian Campbell

Through his www.BusinessTransitionSimplified.com website and his Business Transition & Valuation Review newsletter Ian R. Campbell shares his perspectives on business transition, business valuation and world…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Overview of August 2 U.S. Jobs Report

The U.S. July jobs report seems to have been favourably viewed by the financial markets. However, at least the following things need to be factored into anyreasoned view with respect to it:

  • the reported unemployment rate increased fractionally to 8.3%. This is not good, and not likely good for President Obama in the context of this year's November 6 Presidential election;

  • June's previously released private payroll numbers were very poor, and have now been adjusted downward by 11,000 jobs. This shows the variability of reported statistics, and focuses on their reliability. Manufacturing jobs previously were 'officially reported' for June to have increased by 14,000. 11,000 is 79% of 14,000 - hardly insignificant in the context of 'reported statistics viability';

  • hourly earnings were reported as lower than expected. This is important because of the significance (generally thought to be about 70% of U.S. GDP) of U.S. consumer spending. One can't spend what one doesn't have;

  • growth in temporary jobs is stronger than growth in permanent jobs. This is important because it is only meaningful long-term permanent jobs that are will signal 'real U.S. economic recovery';

  • the July manufacturing jobs increase reported was, by one estimate, about 50% higher than it would have been due to seasonal deviations that may be reported (and reversed) in August; and,

  • at least one other survey, the U.S. government 'Household Employment Survey' showed a loss of jobs in July of 195,000 - a number wildly different than the job gains number of 163,000 reported in the 'official' U.S. jobs report.

Don't hold your breath on U.S. jobs recovery. The financial markets seemingly, in this instance at least, responded to what 'they wanted to hear'.

Topical Reference: July's jobs report is probably not as good as it seems, from Also Sprach Analyst, Walter Kurtz, August 4, 2012 - reading time 3 minutes; and June jobs report: Hiring weak, unemployment unchanged, from CNN Money, Annalyn Censky, July 6, 2012 - reading time 3 minutes.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment