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EUR/USD - Further Downside Anticipated

EUR/USD appears to have entered a short-term consolidation phase which is favoured to yield a lower high versus the recent 1.2443 double top.

Failure to remain below 1.2443 will suggest a stronger recovery higher. We now look for a break back over 83.508 (02/08/2012 high) in the USD index which will then warn of a fresh leg higher to break over the annual high at 84.100.

Longer-term a return to the 1.1000 region in EUR/USD, close to multi-week channel support, remains feasible.

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