• 556 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 557 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 558 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 958 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 963 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 965 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 968 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 968 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 969 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 971 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 971 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 975 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 975 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 976 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 978 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 979 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 982 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 983 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 983 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 985 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Strong Employment Numbers Portend Worsening Economic Imbalances

As crazy as this may sound, not all employment is good employment. Today's labor department release of a larger than expected 262,000 increase in February non-farm payrolls, heralded by Wall Street as evidence of a vibrant U.S. economy, actually confirms the reverse: a dangerously imbalanced economy moving further off kilter.

The over-bloated service sector added another 207,000 jobs, with construction, no doubt mostly residential, adding 30,000. The beleaguered manufacturing sector did manage to add 20,000 jobs for a change, though half of that gain resulted from temporarily laid off auto workers returning to their job. In other words, the wealth producing sector of the economy added few workers, while the wealth consuming sector provided over 80% of new jobs.

The basic problem with service sector jobs is that they produce few tradable goods. As a result, the added incomes associated with such jobs create upward pressure on our nation's trade deficit, as service sector workers use their additional incomes to buy more imported products. In addition, such jobs provide more workers with the means to qualify for home mortgages, which require additional borrowing from abroad, and provide the basis for future cash-out refinancing, requiring still more foreign financing and resulting in additional purchases of imported products.

In other words, the last thing the U.S. economy needs is more non-productive service sector jobs, which only lead to higher trade deficits as Americans import more goods that service sector workers do not produce, and larger current account deficits, as greater interest payments become necessary to service growing external liabilities.

While this reality may have been lost among U.S. investors, who reacted foolishly by buying stocks, it was not the case among currency traders, who despite their initial, almost reflexive action to buy dollars on apparent "good" economic news, quickly re-evaluated the data and sold, sending the buck sharply lower against all the world's major currencies, and to a new twenty-three year low against the New Zealand dollar. Is this simply a case of buying the rumor and selling the fact, or is it an actual epiphany on the part of currency traders with respect to their understanding of the true nature of the fundamentally flawed American economy? If it is indeed the latter, our bubble economy may have finally found its pin.

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment