• 19 mins Venezuela’s Gold Reserves Are Reaching Critical Levels
  • 16 hours Brexit Woes Weigh On The British Pound
  • 17 hours Forget Turkey, This Is The Biggest Threat To European Finance
  • 18 hours There’s No Hiding From Google
  • 19 hours Turkish Lira Bounces Back After Qatar Bailout Pledge
  • 20 hours What Happens If Tesla Goes Private?
  • 22 hours China's Most Powerful Weapon In The Trade War
  • 1 day Can The S&P 500 Shake Off Negative Sentiment?
  • 2 days Standards Go Out The Window As Employers Struggle To Fill Jobs
  • 2 days The Two Trillion Dollar Markets Amazon Hasn’t Conquered
  • 2 days Digital Supermodels Outperform Humans
  • 2 days France Could Lose Billions In EU Trade Route Redirection
  • 2 days Beer Giants Are Striking Out With Millennials
  • 2 days What Is Bakkt And Can It Take Bitcoin Mainstream?
  • 2 days Tesla’s Board Delivers A Stern Message To Elon Musk
  • 3 days Bitcoin Could Challenge Gold As Major Asset Class
  • 3 days Google In Talks With Tencent Over Cloud Business
  • 3 days Tech Giants Charge Deeper Into $8 Trillion Healthcare Industry
  • 3 days Lockheed Stock Soars On $480M Pentagon Contract
  • 3 days Ontario Moves To Slow Cannabis Drive
  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Quantitative Easing 3 Should Work

Optimism is back again. Decisions taken in the past weeks in the US and Europe could support the S&P 500 index until 1550.

Q3 is on, but for how long?

The Fed launched a third round of quantitative easing (Q3), under which $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) will be bought on a monthly basis. Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it expects the current federal funds rate of 0%-1/4% to be maintained until mid-2015 (forward guidance). The move was anticipated. However, there are some surprises. The program will buy only MBS and no Treasuries for now. Secondly, it should expire with Operation Twist by the end of 2012. The Fed made it clear it will be renewed, if the labor market does not improve tangibly. Will it work? Yes, it should help the unemployment rate to decline below 8.0% again. The study of cycles anticipates a fall to 7.8%-7.5%, before unemployment could increase again for the final third wave.

The Fed's decision will support metals and stocks. Inflation should rise as well. Gold is meeting a strong resistance at 1800, which corresponds to a few long-term trend lines. Nevertheless, the risk-reward ratio remains positive. Funds are still underinvested in the market, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report. Seasonally, the last part of the year supports a rise in gold. A move above 1820 would possibly target 1900-2020. The S&P 500 index has instead moved above the higher channel line of the past four years. The next target could be 1550. October, November, and December are the best three months for stocks.

S&P Futures

The worst might be over for Europe

The dollar should continue to decline against the majors. As an example, the US Dollar index remains overvalued. Funds have just begun selling the greenback. The euro is meeting a good resistance at 1.32/34. A move above 1.3480 would eventually set the price to rise to 1.44. Draghi's decision to buy sovereign debt securities in the secondary market (1-3 year maturities) without any quantity or time restrictions has gained a conditional support from Germany's Federal Constitutional. This will reassure the markets about the European Central Bank's (ECB) capability to buy large numbers of bonds, such as those of Italy and Spain, if required. Higher inflation and a weaker euro (in a few more years) will take pressure away from the weaker nations and stabilize the European Union.

It is true, Germany does not want higher prices. Nevertheless, the long-term decline of interest rates that started in the 80's is set to end. According to the study of cycles, declines in long-term interest rates have continued for 25/27 years from top to bottom (1873/1900, 1920/1945). Consolidations at the bottom lasted for a maximum of nine years. Since 1954, Fed Funds have increased roughly every 4/5 years bottom to bottom (58/62/67/72/77/81/87/93/99/04/09). The longest period of decline was five years (1989/1994). The question is, how do these numbers fit in today's scenario. Interest rates started to decline around 1982 and have been moving sideways since the second part of 2000. As a result, a new increase could be expected 2013/14, if history repeats itself.


Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment