EUR/USD broke its hourly support at 1.2891 (24/09/2012 low) yesterday. A further corrective phase is favoured and should lead to a test of the support at 1.2755 (11/09/2012 low, see also 38.2% retracement from previous rise) in the short-term. Hourly resistance is at 1.2971.

The lack of a base formation or sell-off suggests that the recent Euro strength is a rebound within an underlying downtrend. The current weakness near the 38.2% retracement of the decline from May 2011 to July 2012 suggests limited short-term upside potential and the start of a new down phase.

Daily Technical Report