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Zen Slap

Don't look now, but after last weeks dramatic divergence in the Aussie and the SPX - everyone suddenly became an expert on the Australian economy and their important currency to foreign exchange markets.

Markets have a way of lulling ones concerns to complacency - and then slapping them in a sudden moment of clarity. Generally speaking - its a good idea to take notice.

 

2011 SPX vs 2011-2012 FXA
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2011 SPX
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2012 FXA
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2011 SPX
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Anatomy of a Top
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2011-2012 FXA
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2011 SPX
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Although the analog has recently strengthened its correlation proportions to the model, it would be a bit presumptuous to expect the middle of the move to unfurl with like distribution. As I have noted before, these models often replicate most acutely at pivots. Like a rock lobbed into a pond, the geometry will replicate with great congruency at the point of entry and dissipate as you move further away from the epicenter of disturbance.

With that said - and as mentioned in previous notes, I do have an initial target of ~ 84 for FXA.

As always - Stay Frosty.

 

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