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Risk/Reward

As expected, weakness has continued in the equity markets this week. However, based on the NDX/SPX topping comparative that I have been highlighting over the past few weeks, the downside exhaustion-proportional equivalent of the pattern is ~2525. Considering that the NDX finished today at 2531.87, the risk/rewards for continuing to press shorts here is weak. Based on this comparative, risk will shift to the upside in equities through the balance of November into December.

I would estimate that the downside risks for the NDX could extend in the short-term to the zone of the June 5th/6th gap.


Larger Image

*This note and chart were edited at 4:30 EST to include todays close for the NDX.

 

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