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The State of the Trend

At the end of last week, bulls and bears achieved a state of equilibrium, at approximately the same SP500 level where it happened last time in October:

Market breadth peaked right on schedule and, despite the fact that the indices closed marginally higher for the week, market internals are hovering mid-range:

The SPX is following the seasonal pattern closely and, barring a miraculous and immediate resolution of the fiscal cliff negotiations, that seems to indicate that the index may have trouble overcoming resistance at the 1420-1425 level:

 

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