EUR/USD has failed to hold over 1.3459. This now suggests scope for a larger corrective phase lower.
We would need to see a break under 1.3127 to warn that the rising trend from 1.2662 is over. Also support would be expected close to rising trendline resistance from 1.2662, currently near 1.3220.
In the bigger multi-week time frame we note that the higher low in July 2012 (compared to July 2010) and the recent new high above the strong resistance at 1.3487 (24/02/2012 high) indicates an improvement in the underlying trend. A move towards 1.3791 (measured move implied by the 1.2043 to 1.3172 rise from the retracement at 1.2662) remains possible. A strong resistance is at 1.4247 (27/10/2011 high).
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