After WWI the French went to great length and expense to construct the magnificent and impregnable Maginot Line between themselves and Germany. It was never tested.

Hitler reinvented warfare with the Blitzkrieg and highly mobile armor. He quickly flanked the Maginot Line and was in Paris before the French could get their 'strategically positioned' troops off the Maginot Line. Warfare is fought that way. It is always about startling new changes in the "rules", usually due to technology revolutions and an unexpected new strategy.

The coming CyberWar will be no different. It will be about TECHNOLOGY and STRATEGY again.

Motivations

What would be the motivations for a Cyber War? The list is varied depending on the possible instigator:

SOVEREIGN

Espionage

Military
Economic

Political

False Flag to Galvanize Public Opinion through Fear
Disrupt Others to Gain Competitive Advantage ( i.e. Currency Wars)

INDIVIDUALS and GROUPS

Terrorism (Multitude of Organizations)
Organized Crime (Domestic to International)
Hackers ("Joy Riders" to Psychopaths)

CORPORATE

Theft of Intellectual Property
Sale of 'Defensive' Cyber Weaponry

Key Elements

We need to consider each of the following carefully:

1. Who will be the Aggressor?
2. Who will be the Beneficiaries?
3. What will be the US Response?
4. What will be the REAL Strategy?

Follow the Money

As usual the answers to the questions are to be found by "FOLLOWING THE MONEY".

A CyberWar may not be for the reasons you think. Nor may it be actually targeted at those you think.

Can anyone say "FALSE FLAG"?

32 Minutes, 30 Slides